#避险需求与地缘政治事件 The escalation of the Venezuela situation is a geopolitical event that would normally cause a market sell-off, but Bitcoin has stubbornly stayed above 90,000 with little decline. What does this indicate? It shows that the flow of safe-haven funds has changed.

Over the past two years, I’ve followed several top traders, and their reactions to similar events are particularly interesting — they are not blindly bearish, but instead look for structural opportunities amid the shocks. Bitcoin’s ability to withstand geopolitical shocks just proves that institutional risk aversion is shifting from traditional bonds and gold to digital assets.

The key is to understand the logic of position sizing: aggressive traders might add to their positions when prices break down, while conservative traders wait and see if the 21-day moving average can hold. Recently, I’ve been adjusting my risk models, leaning towards traders who remain calm and composed during sudden events, because they tend to have a more accurate grasp of the market’s true sentiment.

We still need to watch the OPEC variable on Sunday, but based on the current resilience, the probability of an increase in January is rising. Events can shake the market, but they rarely create a true trend — this has been my deepest practical insight over the years.