January 21 Market Analysis. I am Brother Qi. The recent market movements are fundamentally driven by macro events impacting market structure, rather than simple technical retracements.

The core driver of this decline is the black swan event of Trump's tariff threats. It directly triggered a reversal in sentiment and capital withdrawal from global risk assets. In the crypto space, this manifested as concentrated liquidations of high leverage positions. Therefore, what we are facing is not an intrinsic trend change in the market, but a violent "stampede" triggered by external shocks.

Currently, Bitcoin is temporarily supported around $87,800. This is more the result of profit-taking by bears and some bottom-fishing funds acting together, rather than a clear bullish reversal signal. From a technical perspective, an effective reversal must be marked by a strong breakout and stabilization above the previous high-volume zone and key resistance at $92,000. Until then, any rebound should be viewed as a weak correction.

Ethereum's situation is even more severe, as its price has broken through key support levels, approaching a one-month low. The $2,900 level serves as a dual line of defense both technically and psychologically. If this level is lost, it could trigger a deeper correction.

Market focus has fully shifted to the macro level. We need to pay close attention to three variables: First, whether Trump's tariff threats will escalate into concrete policy actions or remain as verbal pressure; second, what substantive countermeasures Europe will take; third, the attitude of the U.S. Supreme Court regarding the relevant legislation, which will determine the space for subsequent policy negotiations. All these factors will directly influence market risk appetite.

Based on the above analysis, our trading strategy is primarily to short on rebounds. After a sharp decline, the market is likely to experience a technical rebound, providing an ideal entry point for our strategy. We will wait patiently rather than actively guessing the bottom.

Specifically, we suggest monitoring Bitcoin's performance around the $91,000 rebound level. If the price shows signs of weakening rally and insufficient volume, it will be a good opportunity to establish short positions. Targets can be set at the $88,000 support level, and if broken, look towards the $86,000 zone. All trades should have strict stop-losses to prevent rapid reversals caused by sudden macro news.