Incrementum's Gold Price Prediction 2030: Why $8,900 Could Be Within Reach

The latest “In Gold We Trust 2025” report from investment firm Incrementum presents a bold yet data-backed gold price prediction 2030 that challenges conventional wisdom about precious metals. According to their analysis, gold could surpass $8,900 per ounce by the end of this decade—a scenario that seems audacious until you examine the underlying fundamentals driving this outlook.

The timing of this gold price prediction 2030 is significant. We’re witnessing a once-in-a-generation restructuring of the global financial system, accompanied by unprecedented currency devaluation and geopolitical tensions. These forces converge to create what Incrementum calls the “Big Long”—a sustained bull market that’s only in its second phase.

Gold’s Bull Market Enters the Public Spotlight

Currently, the gold bull market occupies what Dow Theory identifies as the critical “public participation stage”—the phase where median returns are historically the strongest. This is not the frenzied end-game of speculation; it’s the mainstream validation phase.

The evidence is compelling. Gold prices have risen 92% over the past five years. The number of all-time highs hit 43 times in 2024 alone—the second-highest annual count on record, trailing only 1979 when gold eventually peaked at over $800. Just in the first few months of 2025, gold has already set 22 new records and pierced the $3,000 barrier.

Yet paradoxically, this explosive rally doesn’t compare to historical bull markets in magnitude. Gold’s purchasing power advantage over the U.S. dollar has expanded by nearly 50%, but the relative strength surge compared to stocks and bonds suggests the breakthrough is just beginning. For existing gold investors, the case for maintaining positions is compelling. For newcomers, current prices still offer attractive entry points despite the recent surge.

Central Banks Fuel Structural Demand

The most powerful pillar supporting higher gold prices stems from accelerating central bank demand. Since 2009, the world’s central banks shifted from net sellers to consistent net buyers—a reversal that accelerated sharply after February 2022 when Russia’s currency reserves were frozen.

The scale is remarkable: global central bank gold reserves reached 36,252 tons by early 2025, with gold representing 22% of total currency reserves—the highest proportion since 1997 and more than double the 2016 low of 9%. Yet even this impressive figure remains well below the 70%+ levels of 1980, leaving substantial room for continued accumulation.

Asian central banks lead this rush, though Poland unexpectedly became the largest buyer in 2024. Notably, China’s official gold reserves represent only 6.5% of its total reserves—far below the 70%+ ratios maintained by the U.S., Germany, France, and Italy. Goldman Sachs projects that China alone will purchase approximately 40 tons per month going forward, equivalent to 480 tons annually. This single country’s demand nearly matches the entire central bank purchase volume of recent years.

Geopolitical Realignment Tilts Toward Gold

The shift toward a multipolar world order fundamentally elevates gold’s strategic importance. Economist Zoltan Pozsar’s framework—Bretton Woods III—captures this transformation: the world is transitioning from dollar-backed arrangements toward systems backed by commodities and gold, where neutrality and liquidity trump political affiliation.

Gold possesses three irreplaceable advantages in this reordering. First, gold belongs to no nation or political faction, making it the ideal settlement asset for an increasingly fractured world. Second, unlike fiat currencies or government bonds, gold carries zero counterparty risk—a critical advantage as trust in traditional safe havens erodes. Third, gold’s liquidity exceeds that of government bonds in many cases, with daily trading volumes exceeding $229 billion in 2024.

The Trump administration’s fiscal and trade policies further reinforce this case. The White House targets the federal debt burden—now exceeding $1 trillion in annual interest payments alone—through aggressive spending cuts and tariffs approaching 30% on average, significantly higher than Smoot-Hawley levels. Simultaneously, policymakers aim to devalue the dollar to restore manufacturing competitiveness, creating a paradox: they want a weaker dollar while maintaining its role as the global reserve currency.

Meanwhile, Germany has abandoned its decades-long fiscal conservatism under CDU leadership, with new defense spending and infrastructure plans driving projected national debt from 60% to 90% of GDP—a historic monetary shift that triggered the largest single-day move in German bond yields in 35 years.

Revised Portfolio Architecture for Uncertain Times

Incrementum proposes a fundamental reimagining of the traditional 60/40 stock-bond allocation. The new framework reflects reality: bonds can no longer serve as reliable safe-haven assets.

The revised allocation looks like this:

• Stocks: 45%
• Bonds: 15%
• Safe-haven gold: 15%
• Performance gold (silver, mining stocks): 10%
• Commodities: 10%
• Bitcoin: 5%

This restructuring recognizes that gold now serves dual functions: defensive stability through safe-haven holdings, plus growth potential through performance-oriented precious metals and mining equities. Historical analysis proves gold’s worth: across 16 bear markets since 1929, gold outperformed equities in 15 of them, with an average outperformance of +42.55%.

Modeling the Gold Price Prediction 2030

Incrementum’s quantitative model produces two primary scenarios for gold price prediction 2030:

Base Case: Gold reaches approximately $4,800 by year-end 2030, with a medium-term target of $2,942 by end-2025. This scenario assumes moderate inflation and policy normalization.

Inflation Scenario: Gold surges to $8,900 by 2030, with a medium-term target of $4,080 by end-2025. This projection accounts for aggressive monetary stimulus, currency depreciation, and potential stagflation.

Current prices have already exceeded the base case’s 2025 target of $2,942, suggesting the market is tracking closer to the inflation scenario. Which path prevails depends on the intensity of policy response to economic headwinds over the next five years.

The Shadow Gold Price Framework

A crucial analytical lens involves the “shadow gold price”—the theoretical price gold would reach if the monetary base held full commodity backing. Under the Bretton Woods Agreement, this calculation was straightforward: divide the monetary base by gold holdings.

Current calculations reveal the gap:

• If U.S. M0 required 40% gold backing (pre-1934 standard): gold reaches $8,566
• If U.S. M0 required 25% backing (1945-1971 standard): gold reaches $5,354
• Under full 100% backing: gold would trade near $21,416

During the 2000s bull market, U.S. gold coverage expanded from 10.8% to 29.7%—a doubling that corresponded with gold prices roughly doubling. If this pattern repeats, gold surpassing $6,000 becomes highly plausible.

Currency Debasement Accelerates the Timeline

The most underappreciated factor supporting higher gold prices involves the explosive expansion of money supplies. Since 1900, while the U.S. population grew 4.5-fold (76 million to 342 million), the M2 money supply expanded 2,333 times. Per capita M2 expanded over 500 times.

Analogously, this mirrors “an athlete on steroids: impressive physique, fundamentally fragile infrastructure.” G20 nations averaged 7.4% annual M2 growth. After three years of contracted money supplies, fresh monetary expansion has begun. If this acceleration continues—and policy responses to economic weakness suggest it will—gold faces multi-year tailwinds.

Bitcoin and Gold: Complementary, Not Competitive

Bitcoin’s emergence introduces nuance to gold’s outlook. Currently, Bitcoin commands approximately 8% of gold’s total market value (Bitcoin: ~$1.9 trillion; gold: ~$23 trillion). Incrementum projects Bitcoin could reach 50% of gold’s market value by 2030.

Using the base case gold target of $4,800, Bitcoin would need to reach approximately $900,000 to capture this share. While ambitious, this scenario aligns with historical performance curves of both assets and reflects their complementary roles: gold provides stability; Bitcoin offers convexity and decentralization benefits.

Short-Term Risks to Acknowledge

Despite the compelling long-term trajectory, near-term volatility remains possible. Key risk factors include:

• Central bank reversal: Unexpected drops in quarterly purchases (currently averaging 250 tons) would eliminate structural demand support
• Geopolitical de-escalation: Ukraine resolutions or Middle East peace agreements would evaporate geopolitical premiums
• Stronger-than-expected U.S. growth: Economic strength could prompt the Fed to maintain higher rates longer
• Speculative unwinding: Post-“Emancipation Day” volatility showed how quickly leveraged positions can reverse
• Dollar rebound: Short-term oversold conditions could power a currency rally, pressuring precious metals

In bear-case scenarios, gold could retreat to $2,800 or trade sideways for extended periods—a consolidation that historically occurs within bull markets and doesn’t threaten the medium-to-long-term uptrend.

The “Golden Swan Moment” in the New Monetary Order

The fundamental thesis underlying Incrementum’s gold price prediction 2030 transcends simple technical analysis or extrapolation. Gold is undergoing a renaissance as the foundational monetary asset—the equivalent of an economy’s “Michael Jordan”: reliable defense coupled with offensive punch.

As traditional reserve assets lose credibility and central banks accumulate gold at unprecedented rates, this commodity isn’t reverting to outdated status. Instead, gold is transitioning toward a formalized role in international settlement systems—potentially backed by multiple central banks in proportion to their economic output, creating a true multipolar monetary reserve.

The “Golden Swan Moment” captures this transformation: a rare confluence of geopolitical, monetary, and economic factors simultaneously converging to revalue gold higher. With fiat currency purchasing power eroding by 2,333x over 125 years, governments facing debt burdens exceeding $1 trillion annually in interest costs alone, and central banks accelerating gold accumulation at triple historical rates, the structural case for higher gold prices has rarely been more compelling.

Whether gold reaches the base case’s $4,800 or the inflation scenario’s $8,900 by 2030, the direction appears clear: upward. For investors seeking portfolio stability amid macroeconomic turbulence, this gold price prediction 2030 reinforces what history has long suggested—that gold remains the ultimate monetary insurance policy.