2026-01-21 11:20:34

Ethereum's fluctuations around the 2900 level are testing how many investors' psychological bottom lines. On the surface, the rebound of a few dozen points seems to provide some relief, but the deeper logic is entirely the opposite — the market is accelerating its sell-off rather than truly adjusting.

The current situation has far exceeded the scope of the crypto circle itself. The global macro environment is undergoing dramatic changes, and liquidity is experiencing a major withdrawal. The implementation of tariff policies directly affects global capital flows, which is not just a trade impact but a re-pricing of the entire risk asset allocation.

The surge in the 30-year Japanese government bond yield is a signal. When long-term interest rates rise sharply, cross-border arbitrage trades accelerate their liquidation, and a large amount of capital flows back into the yen. In this liquidity-tight environment, high-risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum are among the first to be sold off. Major industry institutions — whether exchanges or mining companies — are choosing to play defense. In this context, blindly bottom-fishing is essentially risking a fight in front of the main force's sniper rifle.

The technical situation is not optimistic. Looking at the 4-hour K-line reveals the clues. The 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages are now diverging downward, and the K-line is firmly pressed below the 3000 level, with no effective support in sight. Every rebound in volume is shrinking, and this volume contraction rebound is precisely a sign of the main players offloading, not a bottom signal. Calling for a bottom at this position is no different from raising a shield in front of the main players' sniper guns.

Support levels appear fragile in the face of panic selling. This decline is not a normal technical correction but a structural liquidity contraction response. Continuing to wait and see for clearer bottom signals may be wiser than rushing into the market.

ETH-2,24%

BTC-0,73%

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MetaDreamer

· 20h ago

Here we go again with macro talk... Japanese government bonds, tariff policies, liquidity... sounding so convincing, but I just want to know why institutions are so smart and we're just so stupid. Is a volume decline and rebound=dumping? Then it's actually a buying opportunity, just go against the trend. Is the 2900 level really that important? Feels like we're guarding this number every day, so annoying. Main force sniper rifle haha, that analogy is perfect, feels like being taken out immediately. Actually... rather than looking at moving averages, it's better to see if there are whales buying. Macro indeed has a lot of pressure, but when has the crypto circle ever been completely aligned with macro... it's all just an excuse. Waiting for bottom signals sounds professional, but what then? Waiting for half a year.

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unrekt.eth

· 01-21 11:50

A volume-constrained rebound is just a dump; there's really no bottom to this wave.

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ForkItAllDay

· 01-21 11:50

Starting to talk about macro again, but to be honest, this wave of Japanese bonds is indeed fierce. Wait, how do I reverse this logic... Institutional defense just means it’s not over yet. A volume-down rebound = distribution. I'm tired of hearing this phrase; they said the same last year. Holding below 3000 without letting go is probably absorbing funds, and understanding it the other way might be profitable.

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ApyWhisperer

· 01-21 11:42

Decreasing volume rebound is just a sign of distribution. I'm tired of this trick, and there are really people daring to catch the bottom. The main force is targeting, and you're still raising shields. That's hilarious. Japanese government bonds have really exploded this time, and global funds are fleeing. What are we small retail investors? Breaking 2900 depends on macro factors; technical analysis is useless. Liquidity is the real boss. When the moving averages diverge downward, and you still call the bottom? Brother, you're gambling, not investing. It's better to wait and see rather than try to catch the bottom. I'm just sitting tight, watching where it will fall next. Big institutions are on defense, while retail investors are trying to gamble. I won't take this trade. Volume decrease rebound is a sign of a turnaround, not a lifeline. Don't be fooled. Liquidity is shrinking lately. Don't touch anything until the signal appears.

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JustHereForMemes

· 01-21 11:40

A volume-contraction rebound indicates main force distribution. We really need to wait this out, don't rush to catch the bottom. The main force's sniper rifles are all set up, rushing in now would be a gift. The surge in Japanese government bonds is indeed hard to say. When liquidity tightens, high-risk assets are the first to be affected, and this logic holds. Psychological bottom? It's been worn down long ago haha. The moving averages are diverging downward, and trading volume is still shrinking. Isn't this just the rhythm of distribution? Waiting and watching is indeed smarter than rushing to buy the bottom, although missing out on gains is really uncomfortable. Waiting for bottom signals is more cost-effective than rushing into a knife.

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WinterWarmthCat

· 01-21 11:35

Currently, those buying the dip are all rookies; let's wait and see.

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BearMarketBarber

· 01-21 11:34

Volume contraction rebound is just the main force offloading, we really have to wait for this wave --- Someone is starting to buy the dip again, I just smile and say nothing --- The surge in Japanese government bonds is indeed something to pay attention to, it's no longer just a crypto matter --- Rebounding a few points from 2900 and thinking it's the bottom? That's too naive, brother --- Instead of trying to buy the dip, it's better to wait for signals. Entering now is just giving away money --- Institutions are all on defense, retail investors are still rushing, the gap is really huge --- Moving averages are diverging downward, support is very fragile, don't buy blindly --- Liquidity contraction is not just a technical adjustment, the root cause is here --- A rebound with shrinking volume is the most deceptive, I've seen it many times --- Tariff policies are causing global capital reallocation, how can the crypto circle be immune?

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