2026-01-21 11:20:36

#数字资产市场动态 The global risk aversion wave is here. Why didn't BTC hold the 90,000 mark? My judgment has been validated once again.

Everyone, if you've been following my analysis, this wave of decline shouldn't catch you off guard. I mentioned two weeks ago: once macro liquidity tightens and geopolitical tensions heat up, high-volatility assets are the first to suffer. Now, the market has confirmed this judgment with actual actions.

**Is BTC really still "digital gold"?**

This is a question that needs to be asked again. QCP is right; BTC now resembles a high-beta risk asset—when market risk appetite declines, it sinks along with it. My on-chain data model has long shown this: in the past week, whale addresses' selling pressure surged by 37%, and stablecoin inflows slowed significantly. What does this mean? Major holders are rapidly exiting risk positions. Once Japanese government bond yields plummet and trade tensions between Europe and America escalate, the first reaction of traditional capital is to withdraw cash, with no intention of allocating to crypto assets.

**How has my prediction been validated by the market?**

Timing was very precise. On January 15th, I warned in the community that "a steepening US Treasury yield curve will suppress risk assets." At that time, BTC was still hovering above 95,000. But a black swan candle in the Japanese bond market triggered a selling wave. Looking at derivatives data, the funding rate for perpetual contracts had already been negative for three consecutive days before the sharp decline. Smart money had already hedged against this—this perfectly aligns with reports of "capital shifting to defensive positions." I'm not just interpreting the market; I'm predicting in advance.

**What should you do next? Stick to these three points:**

Current situation: If BTC can't rebound below 90,000, the next key support is at 83,000. As long as risk aversion hasn't fully dissipated, don't rush to buy the dip. Entering now would only be cannon fodder.

Medium-term observation points: Pay close attention to when Trump's tariff policies are truly implemented and whether the Bank of Japan will intervene in the bond market—any changes here could restart global risk appetite.

My own strategy: Keep 70% of spot holdings steady, allocate 15% of funds for volatility arbitrage, and keep the remaining cash ready, waiting for the moment of extreme market panic.

Finally, this is crucial: During macro turning points, surviving is more important than making money. But precisely because of that, this is the best opportunity for the next layout.

$BTC

BTC-0,5%

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RugPullProphet

· 01-21 11:50

Oh no, you called it again this time. I really believe you now. I had already reduced my position based on your advice. It's another moment where cash is king. Be more cautious this time, everyone. The critical support at 83,000—I bet it can hold. Otherwise, I’ll really panic. Following your advice with a 70-30 split, calmly lying in wait for opportunities is much better than constantly chasing the ups and downs. The black swan came so suddenly. Luckily, I didn't go all-in. This is the benefit of listening to a prophet.

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FortuneTeller42

· 01-21 11:47

Bro, this wave really hit the point. Two weeks ago, I was also pondering the same thing, and I was lucky not to follow the herd and chase the high. It’s time to ask whether BTC is still digital gold. Over the past few years, it has long become a high-beta risky asset. Whether the 83,000 support can hold depends on how the macro environment unfolds in the next two weeks. I didn’t dare to go all-in on the bottom either. Now it’s just a matter of who can survive until the next round of madness. Honestly, what’s entered now is ammunition; wait for extreme panic to get serious. This time, it’s really not a bottoming opportunity; it’s about surviving to win.

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AirdropAnxiety

· 01-21 11:39

Here we go again, is this guy playing the armchair strategist again? But on second thought, the 83,000 barrier is definitely worth a look.

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GateUser-e87b21ee

· 01-21 11:38

Oops, you called it again. The 90,000 barrier really didn't hold up. I've long been asking whether BTC is still considered digital gold, and now it seems to be a risk asset. Your idea of 15% volatility arbitrage is good, but you need to act quickly... In this kind of market, a quick counter-move can trap people. Is 83,000 really the next threshold? It feels like there's still room to test the bottom. Currently, those who are bottom-fishing are truly bleeding red. Let's wait and see Japan's central bank's stance. You really timed it perfectly this time; big players are fleeing very quickly. In times like these, survival is indeed the most important, but honestly, psychological resilience is a bit hard to build.

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GmGmNoGn

· 01-21 11:22

Oops, you called it again. I should have listened to you and not chased the highs earlier. Now watching everyone cut losses, I’m speechless. I should have accumulated more stablecoins earlier; now I’m full of regret. I think your theory is reliable. The next support level really depends on whether we can hold the 8.3 level. Wait, how exactly does the 15% volatility arbitrage work? Can you explain it in detail? By the way, can this really be the best opportunity for strategic positioning? It feels like every time, people say the same thing. When I didn’t hold the 90,000, I should have listened to your advice and not bottom-fished. Learned my lesson. Right now, it all depends on what the central bank and Trump will do. They are the key variables.

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RugResistant

· 01-21 11:21

Here it comes again, this guy is really ridiculously accurate... I was still buying in at 95,000 on January 15th. Should have listened to you earlier, now I'm losing big, just waiting for the support at 83,000. To be honest, this wave is indeed different from before, the big players are really selling off, data doesn't lie. I'm not bottom-fishing anymore, just want to stay alive first, and consider this little cash on hand as the bullets for the next wave.

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