#美国核心CPI未达市场预期 Late positive news, how long can it last?

Yesterday, the US core CPI data came in below expectations, and the market finally took a breather. This easing expectation has indeed been driving a rebound in risk assets recently, but don’t rush to celebrate.

A key detail is that this data reflects the situation from September last year. In other words, what we are seeing now is actually a "retrospective replay." The real issue at hand is that the current Trump administration’s tariff policies are escalating, and the ongoing inflationary pressures have not been fully released. The Federal Reserve is caught in a classic dilemma—weak economic growth requires rate cuts, but inflationary concerns make it risky to be too aggressive.

What does this mean for the crypto market? Short-term positive news may continue to boost sentiment, but the medium to long-term risk is "stagflation." Imagine an economy with stagnant growth but rising prices—under such conditions, risk assets are usually severely suppressed. For cryptocurrencies to withstand this shock, relying solely on expectations of rate cuts is not enough. We need to see more tangible signs: sustained net inflows into spot ETFs, genuine large-scale adoption by institutions—these inherently attractive stories are necessary to hedge against complex macroeconomic challenges.

When the macro environment is full of uncertainties, projects that are not hostage to interest rates but are built on genuine human needs become even more valuable. That’s why long-term development based on intrinsic value remains the most solid investment approach amid volatility.