The technical chart looks ugly, but don't be scared by the death cross on the 1-hour chart. My judgment is actually different — this is not a downtrend continuation but the final shakeout before a rebound on the daily chart. Smart money has long since voted with real gold and silver.

First, let's talk about the confusing aspects of the technicals. Yes, the 1-hour chart shows a bearish arrangement, MACD death cross, which looks frightening. But looking at the details: the price has already bottomed twice near 87787 and quickly rebounded, forming a potential double bottom. It is now stuck at 89240 resistance, which coincides with the combined pressure of the 1-hour MA30 and the middle band of Bollinger Bands. This kind of one-time breakout failure is actually a healthy sign. The real key is that the MACD green bars are expanding (indicating increasing momentum), but the price is making new lows — this is the so-called bullish divergence, a short-term exhaustion signal.

The most solid evidence is on-chain. Exchange balances have sharply decreased by 12%. What does this mean? Chips are being withdrawn from exchanges that could dump at any moment, tightening supply. Don't underestimate this. Even more aggressive, whales have increased their holdings by 23,000 BTC within 72 hours. What do you think their intention is? It’s definitely not to be kind and buy the dip; this is classic bottom accumulation behavior. Also, the premium rate of GBTC has narrowed to -15%, meaning the largest structural selling pressure (Grayscale’s arbitrage position) is rapidly clearing out. Selling pressure is drying up, and the bottom support becomes more solid.

The macro environment is also sending a tailwind. The dovish FOMC minutes combined with an 18% plunge in the VIX index temporarily eased the liquidity alarm for global risk assets. Market risk appetite is beginning to recover, and as the highest-beta asset, cryptocurrencies will directly benefit. The logic is simple.

So the conclusion is: the market is in a narrow range between 87,500 and 89,500, creating anxiety with frightening technical patterns to complete the final shakeout. The crazy accumulation by on-chain whales and the macro warming together form an invisible support band.

How am I trading? Completely avoiding chasing shorts, instead treating the sharp decline as a gift. The 87,300 to 87,800 zone is an ideal area for phased long entries, with a stop-loss below 87,000 (if it breaks below the whales’ cost zone, admit defeat and exit). The first target is to break through 89,500 and test 91,500 (the upper band of the 4-hour Bollinger). Once stabilized, a 5-8% rebound space will quickly open up.