Looking at this ETH trend, there are several details worth examining carefully.

**Technical Analysis**

The price is currently hovering just above the lower Bollinger Band (2906), but the Bollinger Bands are tightening, with the middle band (3027) exerting obvious pressure. This narrowing pattern usually indicates that a big move is brewing—typical of a consolidation phase.

The MACD is already showing signs of a golden cross below the zero line. The DIF (56.36) has crossed above DEA (54.80), with the green momentum bars just emerging, and importantly, the price has not made a new low. This is a bullish divergence, often signaling that downward momentum is weakening.

The moving average alignment remains bearish, with MA7 and MA30 not yet turning up, but interestingly, the price is consolidating sideways. The 7-period moving average (2966) is nearly flat. Once volume picks up and the price breaks above this line, a short covering rally could follow.

**On-Chain Indicators**

Monitoring data shows that the number of large holders transferring to exchanges has decreased significantly over the past 24 hours, indicating selling pressure is easing. This is a positive signal.

ETH 2.0 staking rate has been rising for three consecutive days, suggesting more long-term holders are increasing, and the underlying chip stability is good. The willingness to lock in positions is strengthening, which is not a small matter.

**Fundamental News**

Layer2 ecosystem activity has been quite active recently, with Arbitrum and Optimism both experiencing explosive growth, with TVL increasing over 15% week-over-week. This rising ecosystem activity boosts the valuation expectations for the Ethereum mainnet.

The Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting is approaching, and market expectations for rate cuts are heating up, which will improve liquidity for risk assets. This macro environment is indeed favorable for the crypto market.

**My Perspective**

This position is not despair but a phase of quiet accumulation. ETH on the 1-hour chart has already shown three resonance signals—bullish divergence + Bollinger Bands tightening + on-chain selling pressure weakening—this combination is rare.

The first key level for a rebound is 3027 (middle Bollinger Band). If the price stabilizes there, then 3148 (upper band) could be tested.

**Trading Strategy**

For aggressive traders, you can try opening a small long position near the current price (around 2960). Set the stop-loss just below the previous low; if it breaks below 2950, you should exit, with 2890 as a clear support line.

For more conservative traders, wait until the hourly close above 2980 before entering, to avoid being worn down during this choppy bottoming process.

Market bottoms are usually confirmed when panic is at its peak. The MACD golden cross is also close. Instead of waiting for the price to rise before chasing, it’s better to participate early. The current position is a reminder— the consolidation phase is already sufficiently mature.