2026-01-21 11:23:08

Market Observation as of January 21.

Short-term trend shows clear reversal signals. A bullish strategy is no longer the current choice; instead, positioning in short positions at high levels becomes a more prudent approach. The long-term short positions previously established remain reasonable to hold.

It is important to emphasize once again—before the four-year cycle fails, prioritize trusting this macro cycle framework and put risk management first. In the spot investment portfolio, BTC should account for over 90%. To summarize the current trading mindset in one sentence: always be prepared with cash and the courage to act.

Interestingly, BTC's price movement has shown a high degree of synchronization with the stock performance of a major chip manufacturer. This correlation is worth paying attention to at this stage. Patience is key—BTC is not yet at a long-term shorting opportunity. The current bullish momentum is still strengthening, and we need to wait for the next genuine shorting opportunity.

The altcoin index is currently hovering around the 37 level, which does not justify a buying value. Watching and waiting is the wiser choice at the moment, and there are no sufficient reasons to hold altcoins for now.

For Lit, a position of about 30% has been established near $2.1.

From a long-term cycle perspective, BTC will at least test the support level of $80,000—this is almost certain. Only if this support withstands the test can it potentially trigger the third wave of upward movement, targeting $120,000. The real danger scenario is: once BTC hits or even breaks below $80,000 to $70,000, $60,000, or $50,000, the altcoin market may face a bloodbath. Based on this, before the four-year cycle clearly fails, trusting this framework remains the best way to protect funds.

Disclaimer: The above views are personal opinions only and do not constitute investment advice.

BTC-1,03%

LIT3,31%

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BlockchainGriller

· 21h ago

80,000 support is a bit shaky; it might break through directly --- Short positions are back again. This set of arguments sounds a bit familiar --- Altcoins at this level are indeed not very attractive; just wait and see --- BTC and chip stocks moving in sync? If that's true, it would be incredible --- 90% of BTC remaining steady feels a bit like gambling --- Lit is building a 30% position at 2.1; this guy still has some guts --- What if the 4-year cycle fails? That framework would collapse --- Basically, just wait for the opportunity; now is not the time to short --- Using the phrase "blood flowing like a river" is a bit intense; we really need to be cautious --- Cash and courage, sounds simple but hard to do

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RealYieldWizard

· 01-21 11:51

Short position layout is quite interesting this time, but I'm still watching to see if the $80,000 support can hold. --- Altcoins still dare to buy at 37? I think it's a big risk, continue to lie flat. --- BTC is moving in sync with those chip stocks? This correlation is worth a deep dive. --- Anyone still trying to bottom fish in altcoins now is a brave warrior. I remember the phrase "blood flowing in rivers." --- Lit at $2.1 with 30% position, this guy has a big heart. --- Before the 4-year cycle expires, sticking to this logic is a bit stubborn. Betting heavily. --- Is the bullish momentum still strengthening? When can I finally enjoy my short positions? --- 90% BTC dominance, sounds like the ultimate gamble of a gambler.

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DefiPlaybook

· 01-21 11:48

Based on on-chain data and the four-year cycle framework, this logical framework is indeed worth referencing. The suggestion that BTC's share remains above 90% is a bit conservative, but it still makes sense from a risk management perspective. Breaking the $80,000 support level would indeed trigger a chain reaction, and at that point, the altseason might really be over. Currently, the altcoin index at 37 doesn't look very attractive. Wait, the synchronization between BTC and chip manufacturers... what's the underlying logic? Is it driven by liquidity or institutional arbitrage? Need to take a closer look.

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MetaverseHobo

· 01-21 11:48

Wait a minute, the bullish momentum is still strengthening. Should I go short at the high now? That logic is a bit confusing. --- Can the support level of $80,000 really hold? Feels a bit too absolute to say. --- Only warriors are still buying altcoins now. I’ve completely laid flat. --- Is BTC syncing with chip stocks? That connection is interesting; need to keep a close eye on it. --- Ninety percent of the position is in BTC, the remaining one-tenth is probably just to scare people haha. --- Lit entered a 30% position at 2.1, this guy is pretty aggressive. --- The phrase "blood flowing in rivers" is spot on, indicating that the downside risk is very real. --- Believing in the cycle framework is like betting it won't fail; the risk is quite significant. --- The hardest part now is waiting, waiting for that true shorting opportunity. It's tough.

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CodeSmellHunter

· 01-21 11:47

Shorts are probably going to get trapped again this wave. Is the four-year cycle thing really still effective after all this time... Waiting for support at 80,000? Feels like that's a matter for another month. The 90% BTC ratio sounds safe, but right now there really aren't any good swing trading opportunities. Altcoins at 37? Then just keep lying low, there's no real potential anyway. I don't see how BTC and chip stocks are synchronized; I need to keep observing. Lit at $2.1 with a 30% position, is this a gamble on a rebound? So now it's just do nothing, hoard BTC and wait for dark times? When will there truly be a shorting opportunity? It feels like I'm just waiting. If 80,000 breaks, won't altcoins be doomed?

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GasFeeCrybaby

· 01-21 11:40

Wait, are you so sure about the $80,000 support level? --- Short positions are indeed comfortable, but the psychological torment is a bit intense. --- That chip manufacturer part is really interesting, need to pay more attention. --- Right now, altcoins are just a trap, I choose to lie flat. --- Lit is building a 30% position at 2.1? Friend, your guts are really big. --- 90% BTC allocation sounds safe, just see if it can really be executed as planned. --- Honestly, waiting for a real shorting opportunity might take half a year. --- Cycle theory and support levels again, will this framework work when truly losing money? --- I agree not to buy at the 37 water level for altcoins, but don’t say there’s no reason to hold. --- Always ready with cash and courage? I have the courage, but no cash haha.

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LiquidityHunter

· 01-21 11:35

Is $80,000 really enough to stop the decline? I'm a bit hesitant. At 3 a.m., I checked the liquidity depth multiple times, and the spread of trading pairs is outrageous. At the position of the Shanzhai Index 37, the slippage is a bit terrifying... The synchronization between BTC and chip stocks—this arbitrage space is really shrinking. According to a four-year cycle projection, there are indeed some insights, but what if it fails? Now we're just waiting for that true shorting opportunity to come crashing down. Lit built a 30% position at 2.1, and I don't quite understand this timing. The $120,000 target is a bit aggressive, but the data backing it up is quite solid.

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WagmiOrRekt

· 01-21 11:34

Short positions are the way to go; bullish players should wake up. Waiting for that $80,000 hit, altcoins will bleed heavily. Is BTC syncing with chip stocks? Interesting, I need to keep an eye on this correlation. Cash is king; this statement is becoming more and more true. Altcoins at $37, you want me to buy in? Don't even think about it. Holding BTC long-term accounts for 90%, everything else is gambling. Lit 2.1 with 30% position, somewhat interesting but not urgent. If the 4-year cycle hasn't failed, believe in it; anyway, risk comes first. Waiting for a real shorting opportunity; now is not the time. $120,000 target sounds so far away...

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