From yesterday to today, the market movement can be summarized as a market stampede triggered by external shocks. Technical retracement? No, it's far from that simple.

The true culprit is clear—Trump's tariff threats are like a stone thrown into a calm water surface. Global risk asset sentiment instantly reverses, and a large amount of capital turns around and runs. In the crypto world, this manifests as: high leverage funds concentrate and get liquidated, triggering a chain reaction. What we see is not a technical adjustment of a certain coin, but a forced "stampede" across the entire market.

Bitcoin has currently found a breathing space around $87,800. Don't be fooled by this rebound; it is more about short-term profit-taking by bears and some bottom-fishing funds coincidentally meeting at the same price level, which doesn't mean much. The real reversal signal depends on whether the price can stabilize above $92,000—this is a key resistance level where previous high-volume trading occurred. Before breaking through, any rebound is just a weak technical correction.

Ethereum's situation is even more tense. The price has broken below a key support level and is close to testing a one-month low. The $2900 level is both a technical and psychological defense line; once it is lost, the correction could deepen further.

Now all eyes are on the macro front. There are three variables we must watch closely: First, will Trump's tariff threats really turn into concrete policy, or are they just bluffing? Second, what substantive countermeasures will Europe take? Third, how will the US Supreme Court rule on these bills? This directly determines how much room there is for subsequent policy negotiations. These three variables will directly influence market risk appetite.

Based on this judgment, our approach is clear: mainly short on rebounds. After a sharp decline, the market is likely to see a technical rebound, which is our entry window. No need to guess the bottom; just be patient and wait.

How to operate specifically? Focus on Bitcoin's rebound towards around $91,000. If there are obvious signs of stagnation—no upward movement, shrinking volume—then it’s a good opportunity to short. First target support at $88,000; if broken, then look at $86,000. Be sure to set strict stop-losses to prevent rapid reversals caused by sudden macro shifts.