Whale Clarification: The crypto bull market is not over; it has just shifted from speculation to allocation

The media’s understanding of the market structure shift has been mistaken. On January 21, a suspected “1011 insider whale” Garrett Jin clarified that some media outlets have seriously misinterpreted the views of Wintermute. An increase in institutional participation is not a signal of the end of the crypto bull market; on the contrary, it marks a structural transition from speculation-driven to allocation-driven markets — a sign of market maturity, not decline.

The Root Cause of Media Misinterpretation

Confusing two different concepts

Some opinions incorrectly interpret the phenomenon of “retail investors shifting to institutional investors” as “the bull market is about to end.” However, Garrett Jin pointed out that these two are not causally related. Large-scale institutional capital involvement typically pushes asset prices higher and reduces volatility — a fundamental market law that applies to both stock markets and crypto markets.

What is the real market transformation?

The core of Wintermute’s original view is: as institutional participation deepens, top-tier crypto assets like BTC and ETH are transitioning from speculative tools to configurable assets. This is a change in nature, not a negation of value.

Specific Manifestations of the Shift from Speculation to Allocation

Data Verification: Signs of Market Maturity

Declining volatility as a key indicator

BTC volatility has sharply decreased from the historical 80%-150% to the current 30%-60%. This is not a sign of declining market vitality but a direct result of changing participant composition. The stability and long-term holding nature of institutional funds naturally reduce extreme market fluctuations.

Pathways of institutional participation

Large-scale buying through ETFs and digital asset funds has driven prices up and also changed market rhythm. The accelerated institutional inflow in H2 2025, along with last October’s market crash, further solidified the dominance of mainstream assets, widening the structural gap between BTC, ETH, and meme coins.

Validation of historical patterns

This transformation is not unique to crypto markets. The development histories of China’s A-shares and the US stock market both demonstrate that after large-scale institutional entry, market structure becomes more stable and trend-oriented. Price volatility decreases, but upward trends tend to last longer.

Why This Is Not the End of the Bull Market

From a systemic transformation perspective

Garrett Jin summarized that this is the end of the “retail-driven, high-volatility, meme-dominated” phase, not the end of the entire bull market. The market is undergoing a systemic shift from speculation to allocation, from retail sentiment to institutional positioning, and from extreme volatility to institutional-level fluctuations.

Support from price performance

According to reports, current BTC prices remain at relatively high levels, supported by ongoing institutional allocation needs. Such allocation-driven demand tends to be more sustainable than speculative demand.

Summary

The crypto market is not declining but undergoing a necessary process of maturation. Mistaking this structural shift for the “end of the bull market” reflects a misunderstanding of market development laws. The increase in institutional participation is changing the market’s form and rhythm, not the fundamental upward trend. The transition from a speculation-driven to an allocation-driven system signifies that the market is establishing a more stable and sustainable growth foundation. This is not a sign of decline but a mark of maturity.