Bitcoin's $90,000 key support, three major signals indicate a rebound may be expected

Bitcoin fell below $90,000 under Trump’s tariff threat, but derivatives data reveals interesting signals: shorts are taking profits, miner indicators send a “buy” signal, and institutional investors are quietly entering the market. In a market with rising risk aversion, $90,000 is becoming a key battleground for bulls and bears.

Market Status After Breaking Below $90,000

According to the latest data, Bitcoin’s current trading price is $88,892.08, down 2.51% in 24 hours and down 6.18% over the past week. This decline aligns closely with traditional market risk-off sentiment, with Trump’s tariff threats against European countries being the main trigger.

In terms of market size, Bitcoin’s market cap remains at $1.78 trillion, accounting for 59.12% of the entire crypto market, indicating its dominant position remains intact. The 24-hour trading volume reached $5.115 billion, a 44.45% increase from the previous day, suggesting trading activity actually increased during the decline.

Derivatives Data Revealing a Turning Point

The most interesting aspect of this decline lies in the derivatives market performance. Data shows that Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility (IV) rose to 44.34 on Tuesday, reflecting increased market volatility. More importantly, open interest (OI) changed: OI decreased by 3.25% over the past 24 hours to $28.3 billion.

What does this mean? Simply put, short positions are decreasing. When prices fall but OI declines, it usually indicates traders holding put positions are taking profits rather than adding to their shorts. This is a positive sign, suggesting selling pressure may be losing momentum.

Notably, funding rates remained generally positive throughout the sell-off. Positive funding rates mean longs are still paying shorts, indicating bullish momentum is still supporting the market.

Additionally, data from Zcash confirms this trend: its open interest decreased by 2.5%, while the price increased by 1.5%. This suggests that since January 8, short holders are actively reducing their bearish exposure, and market sentiment is quietly shifting.

Why is $90,000 So Critical?

Technical analysis shows that $90,000 is not just a psychological level but also an important technical support. This price coincides with the 200-period moving average on the 4-hour chart and the lower boundary of a weekly bearish flag pattern. In other words, multiple technical factors converge at this point.

If Bitcoin can hold above $90,000, it indicates buyers still control the situation, and a rebound is possible. However, if the weekly close drops below this level, further downside toward the $80,000–$85,000 range could occur. In extreme cases, it might test the April 2025 low of $74,500 and the 200-week moving average at $68,000.

Positive Signals Are Gathering

Several positive signals are emerging in the market. First, miner indicators have shifted: the Hash Ribbon indicator (measuring the 30-day and 60-day moving averages of hash rate) has issued a “buy” signal, suggesting the miner capitulation phase may be ending. Historically, this signal often coincides with significant price discounts and long-term buying opportunities. The last time it appeared was in July 2025, after which Bitcoin surged 25% to a new all-time high.

Second, market sentiment is turning: the 30-day moving average of the Crypto Fear & Greed Index crossed above the 90-day moving average for the first time since May 2025, indicating a shift from long-term fear to optimism.

Third, institutional activity confirms this trend: MicroStrategy made its largest Bitcoin purchase in six months, investing about $1.25 billion to acquire 13,627 BTC. Active institutional accumulation at lows often signals an upcoming rebound.

Summary

Although Bitcoin has fallen below $90,000, derivatives data, technical signals, and institutional movements all point to a common message: the decline may be nearing its end. $90,000 has become a critical defensive level; holding it could lead to a rebound, while a break below warrants attention to the next support zone. In a rising risk aversion environment, profit-taking by shorts and miner indicator shifts suggest the market may be brewing new upward opportunities. The key focus now is whether this psychological support can hold.