#Polymarket预测市场 Polymarket's recent data is quite interesting — the probability of BTC breaking 100,000 in January has risen from previous lows to 38%, and the odds of reaching 95,000 are as high as 69%. This is not just a simple price prediction, but a true reflection of market sentiment and capital game-playing.

I’ve been observing the positions of several experts and found that many are layering their trades within this probability range — some aggressive traders directly follow high leverage longs, but most veterans adopt a laddered approach: small positions aligned with the extreme expectation of 100,000, with main positions added at the high-probability level of 95,000, while reserving stop-loss space to hedge against downside risks at 85,000 and 80,000.

The key is understanding the liquidity characteristics of these prediction markets — probability fluctuations often lead spot price movements. The 38% figure indicates that the market has not fully priced in an optimistic outlook, but buying interest is gradually increasing. The ratio of risk exposure to potential reward is still manageable, provided you clearly understand your risk tolerance and don’t go all-in just because of high probability.

That’s why I choose different follow-trading strategies based on the style of traders — conservative traders position themselves in high-probability zones, while aggressive traders focus on quick reactions and emotional trading. Practice makes perfect; once this wave passes, the retrospective data will be clearer.