Top 100 Cryptos Face Structural Headwinds as Market Navigates Regulatory Reset and Trading Hour Evolution

A significant shift is unfolding across global financial markets. As the majority of top 100 cryptos continue to trade below critical moving averages, traditional equity markets are simultaneously undergoing operational transformation. The coming weeks will likely redefine how capital flows through both traditional and digital asset ecosystems, with institutional actors repositioning themselves strategically.

Nasdaq’s Extended Hours Experiment Could Reshape Market Microstructure

Nasdaq is preparing to launch a formal application with the SEC to extend equity trading hours under its “5x23” model—effectively moving toward near-continuous market operations. Under this proposal, the trading week would begin at 9:00 PM on Sunday and conclude at 8:00 PM Friday, split between daytime sessions (4:00 AM to 8:00 PM ET) and night sessions (9:00 PM to 4:00 AM).

This structural shift arrives at a critical moment. Bitcoin’s pivot to near-24/7 trading infrastructure—evidenced by developments like MetaMask’s native Bitcoin support and on-chain wallet proliferation—suggests crypto markets are already operating on an extended schedule that traditional equities are now seeking to match. The convergence of these two ecosystems may accelerate institutional participation in digital assets.

Weakness Across Top 100 Cryptos Mirrors Broader Market Consolidation Phase

According to CoinDesk analysis, 75 of the top 100 cryptos are currently trading below their 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs)—a signal that few investors are ignoring. This represents 78% of the $3 trillion crypto market capitalization. Major assets including Ethereum, Solana, BNB, and XRP have all fallen from recent highs, with only eight tokens exhibiting oversold conditions on the Relative Strength Index (RSI), suggesting further downside may persist.

Bitcoin itself has retreated from its early October peak above $126,000 to $87,000, driving capital outflows. However, this retracement doesn’t necessarily spell disaster—it often precedes significant accumulation periods by institutions. Meanwhile, the fact that only 29 stocks in the Nasdaq 100 show similar weakness reinforces the notion that crypto is experiencing a distinct cyclical phase distinct from equity market dynamics.

Regulatory Environment Shifts Across Multiple Jurisdictions

The UK’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has launched a broad consultation on cryptocurrency market rules, covering asset listings, insider trading prevention, trading platform standards, and staking risk disclosures. Feedback is due February 12, 2026, with finalization expected by year-end.

Simultaneously, Hong Kong’s Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) has flagged a suspicious “Hong Kong Stablecoin Exchange” falsely claiming connections to local stock exchanges—a reminder that regulatory oversight is intensifying. Meanwhile, in the US, SEC Chairman Paul Atkins warned against over-regulation while acknowledging the need for privacy protections, signaling a potential middle ground between innovation and national security concerns.

Institutional Capital Accelerates Positioning in Crypto-Adjacent Assets

The New York State Retirement Fund has increased its MicroStrategy holdings to $50 million, while 14 of the top 25 US banks are now developing Bitcoin products for clients. Russia’s Sberbank announced it is testing DeFi products, and a partnership between Japan’s Startale Group and SBI Holdings aims to launch a regulated yen stablecoin by Q2 2026.

On the investment side, Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest deployed $17 million in BitMine stock, $16.26 million in Coinbase, and $10.8 million in Circle Internet Group on December 15th alone—suggesting institutional conviction remains robust despite near-term price weakness among top 100 cryptos.

Project Dynamics: Closures Offset by Continued Infrastructure Development

Pryzm, a Layer 1 yield protocol, announced it would wind down operations in early January due to unsustainable economics, causing its token to collapse 80% in 24 hours. Similarly, Aether Games—previously backed by Mysten Labs—disclosed its closure, citing KOL dishonesty, failed marketing partnerships, and unsustainable burn rates as contributing factors.

In contrast, MetaMask expanded its multi-chain footprint by adding native Bitcoin support, enabling users to purchase BTC with fiat, conduct on-chain transfers, and swap EVM assets or SOL for Bitcoin. This development reflects a broader trend: while individual projects may struggle, the infrastructure layer remains robust and increasingly capable.

Bitcoin Network Metrics Warrant Closer Attention

Bitcoin’s 7-day moving average of active addresses has fallen to 660,000—its lowest level in 12 months. Block space demand has weakened considerably, with miners’ daily revenue declining from $50 million in Q3 to approximately $40 million, derived almost entirely from block subsidies rather than transaction fees. An unusual dynamic has emerged: Rune transactions now consume meaningful network throughput but generate only 5-10% of fee revenue, highlighting a potential mismatch between utilization and value creation.

Market Forecasts Range from Bullish to Cautious

Grayscale’s 2026 outlook predicts Bitcoin will reach new all-time highs in the first half of the year, driven by institutional demand and fiat currency devaluation concerns. Tom Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat, argued that crypto markets have 200 times their current potential—with only 4 million Bitcoin wallets holding over $10,000 worth of BTC compared to 900 million retirement accounts globally.

These contrasting signals underscore the market’s current state: structural headwinds pushing down the majority of top 100 cryptos coexist with long-term institutional bullishness about the asset class’s eventual role in global financial markets.

Consolidation and Strategic Acquisitions Reshape the Competitive Landscape

Circle agreed to acquire the Interop Labs team and intellectual property behind the Axelar cross-chain protocol, bringing core contributors into Circle’s infrastructure division. Anchorage Digital, the first federally chartered crypto bank, acquired Securitize’s wealth management division—a unit that grew over 4,500% in the past year.

These moves signal that successful players are consolidating talent and technology, preparing for a potential wave of institutional adoption.

AI and Space Economy Attract Mega-Rounds

Beyond crypto-specific ventures, capital is flowing into adjacent sectors. AI audio startup Mirelo raised $41 million led by a16z, focusing on generative audio for video and games. Space, a leveraged prediction market on Solana, closed a $3 million seed round. Most notably, Vast—Jed McCaleb’s space station startup—is in talks for $300 million in new funding at a $2 billion valuation, with plans to launch “Haven-1” in 2026.

These investments suggest that venture capital remains optimistic about long-term technological innovation, even as near-term sentiment in digital assets remains pressurized.

What Happens When Most of Top 100 Cryptos Trade Below Moving Averages?

History suggests such broad-based weakness can persist for quarters, creating tax-loss harvesting opportunities and forcing weak hands out of the market. However, when coupled with institutional inflows, regulatory clarity, and extended trading hours in traditional equities, the stage may be set for a reallocation event.

The current environment—where top 100 cryptos show technical weakness but institutional and geopolitical factors favor longer-term accumulation—represents a classic risk-reward asymmetry. For investors navigating these crosscurrents, the key is distinguishing between cyclical weakness and structural decline. Early evidence suggests the former is more likely.