Federal Reserve Chair Suspense Escalates: Wosh Leads but Trump Undecided, Crypto Market Plummets by $593 Million

The decision on Trump’s Fed Chair candidate adds another layer of uncertainty. On January 21, White House officials publicly stated that Trump will not announce his choice for Fed Chair during this week’s Davos forum, and he has yet to make a firm decision. This signal immediately drew market attention, as it means that an already highly uncertain personnel decision will remain unresolved. More intriguingly, this policy uncertainty has already triggered a chain reaction in the crypto markets—on January 19, Bitcoin plummeted to $92,000, Ethereum fell below $3,200, and over $593 million in liquidations occurred across the network.

Latest Landscape of the Fed Chair Race

According to the latest prediction market data, Kevin Waugh has become the frontrunner for the next Fed Chair. Data from Kalshi and Polymarket show that the former Fed governor’s chances have surged to about 60%, clearly leading other candidates.

In contrast, support for other main candidates has noticeably declined. White House economic advisor Kevin Hasset’s probability has dropped to 15-16%, while current Fed Governor Christopher Waller is around 13-14%. Behind this shift is Hasset’s recent public statement that Trump prefers him to remain in his current White House role, which the market interprets as him essentially stepping back from the race for Fed Chair.

Uncertainty Behind Decision Delays

Although Waugh is now the “clear frontrunner,” Trump’s usual unpredictable style in personnel matters remains. The latest statements from White House officials indicate that Trump has not yet made a final decision, leaving significant uncertainty in the market.

More concerning is the time pressure. Current Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s term ends on May 15, meaning Trump must decide within a relatively limited timeframe. Previously, Trump stated he would announce his successor within January, but given the current situation, this commitment appears to be delayed.

How Policy Uncertainty Impacts Crypto Markets

There is a clear temporal correlation between policy uncertainty and crypto market crashes. On January 19, when market expectations for the Fed Chair candidate shifted dramatically, crypto markets experienced a sharp sell-off.

According to Coinglass data, this decline resulted in approximately $593 million in liquidations across the network, with longs accounting for nearly 90%. This indicates many investors were forced to close high-leverage positions. Meanwhile, factors such as Trump’s tariffs on Greenland, tense US-Europe relations, and the blockage of crypto-friendly bill CLARITY in the Senate further suppressed market risk appetite.

Core reasons for market pressure

• The variability in Fed Chair candidate prospects leads to uncertainty in monetary policy direction
• Trump’s unpredictable policy style makes it difficult for investors to form stable expectations
• Rising geopolitical risks (tariffs, Greenland dispute)
• Instability in crypto policy support

Key Focus Moving Forward

When Trump will finally announce his Fed Chair choice remains a core market suspense. Although no announcement is expected during Davos, considering the May 15 deadline, a decision is unlikely to be delayed much longer.

From a market perspective, regardless of who the final candidate is, the key is whether this decision can be finalized quickly. Ongoing uncertainty itself is a cost—it continues to depress valuations of risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Once a decision is made, the market may see a sentiment recovery, provided the new Chair’s appointment does not trigger fears of a major shift in monetary policy.

Summary

Trump’s delay in announcing the Fed Chair candidate reflects not only his personal decision-making style but also the deeper complexity of the current policy environment. While Waugh is the leading candidate, Trump’s unpredictable nature means this expectation could be overturned at any time. The crypto market’s reaction to this uncertainty has been very direct—$593 million in liquidations is the price paid for policy ambiguity. Investors should be prepared for continued high volatility as the final decision remains pending.