#预测市场监管与诚信 Polymarket's forecast data is worth paying attention to. The probability of Bitcoin reaching 100,000 in January has risen from over 20% in early estimates to 38%, reflecting an increasing market expectation of a short-term upward move. However, from the probability distribution, more funds are betting on the 95,000 level (69%), indicating that market confidence in extreme gains is actually limited—most people's expectations are concentrated in a relatively conservative range.

At the same time, there is a 42% chance of dropping to 85,000, which means the downside risk is fully priced in. The prices in prediction markets often reflect participants' true expectations, as real funds are involved in the betting. From this perspective, the current market consensus is more about digesting within the 75,000-95,000 range, and the probability weight of extreme scenarios is not as aggressive as the surface numbers suggest.

The key still depends on subsequent capital flows—if the funds betting at high levels start to withdraw or hedge, that would be a signal.