#2026年BTC价格展望 Is the cycle narrative really outdated?

The "Bitcoin halving cycle" logic might actually be failing. As we enter 2026, the factors driving prices have completely changed — no longer driven by retail speculation, but shifting towards deeper structural trends like "sovereign and institutional asset allocation." Just look at what BlackRock and others have been doing recently; their continuous buying pace hasn't stopped.

This explains why some leading analysis institutions are giving targets of $150,000 or even higher. These figures aren't derived from historical K-line analysis but are based on the re-pricing of global funds in the current environment — pressures from dollar depreciation, geopolitical uncertainties, all pushing capital to seek strategic reserve assets. Bitcoin happens to meet this demand perfectly.

The real accelerators are actually these:

**Spot ETF** — a direct channel for traditional funds, significantly lowering the entry barrier.

**Tokenization Wave (RWA)** — onboarding real assets worth hundreds of billions; this isn't hype but genuine ecological expansion, which will bring long-term vitality.

**Geopolitical Turmoil** — the demand for non-dollar reserve assets is rising sharply, reflecting an objective trend.

Instead of fixating on analysts' price predictions, think about this: in this cycle, what truly drives value? The answer might be more worth pondering than just expecting price increases.