Trump's Davos speech is imminent: After the tariff turmoil, what signals is the crypto market waiting for?

Trump will deliver a speech today at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting, with the theme “How can we cooperate in an increasingly competitive world?” This speech is highly anticipated by the market because just two days ago, Trump’s new threat regarding European tariffs triggered a “flash crash” in the crypto market. Bitcoin temporarily fell below $93,000, with over $864 million in 24-hour liquidation. The content of this speech could become a key turning point for the crypto market’s trend this week.

Recent Policy Turmoil and Its Impact on the Market

Details of Trump’s Tariff Threat

Last weekend, Trump announced a series of tariff plans targeting several European countries supporting Denmark. According to the latest news, he plans to impose a 10% tariff on these countries starting February 1, rising to 25% in June. This move immediately triggered a chain reaction.

Actual Market Reaction

Following the announcement, the performance of crypto markets and traditional assets diverged sharply. Bitcoin, viewed as a risk asset rather than a safe haven, dropped to $92,574. Meanwhile, gold surged to a historic high of $4,690 per ounce. This divergence indicates a shift in investor attitudes toward geopolitical and trade risks.

Analysts point out that this tariff threat has dashed hopes for a calming trade situation. Holger Schmieding, Chief Economist at Berenberg Bank, stated that this move could lead to a 0.15% increase in U.S. consumer prices and warned markets to “be prepared for more turbulence.”

What Investors Are Looking for in the Speech

Trade Policy Signals Are Most Watched

The core logic of the crypto market has shifted this week. According to HTX DeepThink analysis, after a phased easing of political uncertainty, macro data has regained market pricing power. However, the content of Trump’s speech remains crucial because it may hint at the future direction of trade policies.

Key questions investors are focusing on include:

• Will Trump soften his stance on tariffs in the speech, or will he be more hardline?
• Is there a possibility of easing in US-EU trade negotiations?
• How should the actual impact of these policies on US economic growth be assessed?

Interaction with Other Economic Data

Trump’s speech is not an isolated event. This week also features the release of other important economic data, including the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, PMI preliminary figures, and revised GDP data. These will collectively influence expectations for rate cuts and the performance of risk assets.

Market analysis suggests that if inflation remains sticky and economic resilience persists, expectations for rate cuts may continue to be pushed back, exerting short-term pressure on high-beta altcoins, while Bitcoin is more likely to stay volatile at high levels.

Possible Market Impact Paths of the Speech

Risks of Hawkish Signals

If Trump continues to emphasize trade protectionism and tariffs in his speech, the market could sell off again. The US dollar might strengthen, putting pressure on Bitcoin, which is currently trading near $92,663. In this scenario, safe-haven assets like gold may continue to be favored.

Possibility of Easing Signals

If the speech signals progress in trade negotiations and a reduction in policy uncertainty, crypto markets could rebound. Investors’ appetite for risk assets would increase, but this depends on the speech’s content being clear and convincing.

Summary

Trump’s Davos speech is a key event for the crypto market this week. Under recent tariff shocks, the market has clearly expressed concerns over trade uncertainty—Bitcoin declined while gold hit a record high, signaling a drop in risk sentiment. The content of the speech will determine whether these concerns are alleviated. Investors should closely watch the wording regarding trade policies and how it interacts with other economic data this week. In the short term, crypto markets may continue to fluctuate between policy signals and economic data.