Beyond the 'Self-Fulfilling Prophecy': Mr. Saylor Discusses the Truth Behind Bitcoin Institutionalization in 2025

Mr. Seiler (Founder and Chairman of MicroStrategy) pointed out in an interview on the “What Bitcoin Did” podcast that the market psychology of reacting emotionally to short-term price fluctuations is a “self-fulfilling prophecy,” emphasizing that Bitcoin’s true victory lies in establishing a solid institutional foundation. Throughout 2025, the achievement of multiple milestones in the Bitcoin ecosystem—from regulatory approvals to the entry of financial institutions—tells a compelling story of industry maturity.

Accelerating Institutional Adoption: Over 200 Companies Holding Bitcoin on Their Balance Sheets

At the end of 2024, approximately 30 to 60 companies held Bitcoin on their balance sheets, but this number is projected to reach around 200 by the end of 2025. Mr. Seiler regards this phenomenon as “clear evidence that the fundamentals are solid.”

Traditionally, insurance companies were forced to cancel insurance contracts with Bitcoin-holding companies, but by 2025, this situation has significantly improved. Notably, with the introduction of fair value accounting principles, companies can now recognize unrealized gains as profits. Previously, Bitcoin holdings could have been subject to unrealized capital gains taxes, but proactive government guidance has alleviated these concerns.

Turning Point in the Regulatory Environment: Revival of Insurance and Lifting of Bank Lending Restrictions

In 2025, Bitcoin was officially recognized by the government as the world’s largest digital commodity. The impact of this recognition has been profound. At the beginning of the year, borrowing against approximately $1 billion worth of Bitcoin only allowed for loans equivalent to 5 cents on the dollar, but by the end of the year, nearly all major US banks had begun offering loans collateralized by IBIT (Bitcoin ETFs), and about 25% of banks are reported to be planning to lend against Bitcoin itself.

Furthermore, the US Department of the Treasury has issued positive guidance on including cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, on balance sheets. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) have also expressed support for the industry, signaling a unified regulatory direction. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has advanced the commercialization of Bitcoin derivatives, and mechanisms have been introduced allowing tax-free exchanges of $1 million worth of Bitcoin for an equivalent amount of IBIT.

Beware of the Short-Term ‘Self-Fulfilling Prophecy’: The Importance of a Long-Term Perspective

Market participants have become accustomed to the “4-year cycle theory,” but Mr. Seiler points out that this cyclical market view actually creates a “self-fulfilling prophecy” by alternating short-term buying and selling pressures. Many traders believe “the 4-year cycle is coming” and sell accordingly, causing the prediction to automatically come true.

According to Mr. Seiler, evaluating Bitcoin’s success requires a time horizon of at least 10 years, rather than short-term price forecasts of 90 or 180 days. Looking at the history of ideological movements over the past 10,000 years, those committed to something typically dedicate a decade or more. Despite a markedly bullish trend evident in Bitcoin’s 4-year moving average, market psychology’s overreaction to recent price fluctuations perpetuates the “self-fulfilling prophecy.”

The industry is moving in the right direction, and the network is functioning healthily. Mr. Seiler notes that the recent 90-day downturn was an opportunity for “visionary investors” to increase their Bitcoin holdings.

Bitcoin as a Universal Capital: Rationality of Corporate Strategies

Mr. Seiler defends the strategy of companies holding Bitcoin as a “rational action to improve productivity.” For example, he questions what criticism a company would deserve if it reports a $10 million annual loss but holds $100 million worth of Bitcoin, generating $30 million in capital gains.

He states, “Rather than criticizing companies that buy Bitcoin, the real criticism should be directed at those that continue to incur losses and do not hold Bitcoin.”

Bitcoin, like power infrastructure that drives all machinery in factories, is a “universal capital” in the digital age. There are approximately 400 million companies worldwide. Even if about 200 of them hold Bitcoin, the market is not unmanageable. Paradoxically, the question of why all 400 million companies cannot hold Bitcoin hints at the enormous potential scale of this market.

Infinite Potential of the Digital Credit Market: Strategy’s True Vision

The core strategy led by Mr. Seiler is the development of a “digital credit” market backed by Bitcoin. The company aims to leverage US dollar reserves to enhance corporate creditworthiness and enter the global digital lending market, rather than traditional banking.

Theoretically, this market could reach a size of $10 trillion. Gaining just 10% of the US Treasury bond market would inflate its value to $10 trillion. Investors purchasing credit products prioritize volatility over other factors, so Strategy maintains substantial dollar reserves to demonstrate corporate credit strength.

While many companies already issue senior and corporate credit, untapped opportunities such as Bitcoin-backed exchanges, derivatives, and even Bitcoin-collateralized insurance companies are limitless. Currently, there are no insurance companies worldwide using Bitcoin as collateral or capital. Mr. Seiler emphasizes that “the growth potential of this industry is enormous.”

The value of a business company’s stock is determined not only by current capital utilization but also by feasible future strategies. If Strategy becomes the industry leader in Bitcoin derivatives and Bitcoin-backed lending, its corporate value could far exceed current expectations.

Through Mr. Seiler’s assertions, it becomes clear that the achievements in Bitcoin institutionalization by 2025 are not just temporary market surges but signals of a fundamental transformation of the financial system. Recognizing structural changes over a decade, rather than being misled by short-term “self-fulfilling prophecy,” will be the key to entering the next phase of growth.