Lihua's 2026 Bull Market Thesis: Why ETH Remains His Largest Position

In late December, industry investor Lihua shared his strategic outlook through X, offering a detailed glimpse into his conviction about the year ahead. His firm’s Trend Research division has been actively accumulating positions, recently adding 11,520 ETH to its holdings—a move that underscores a broader investment narrative spanning multiple asset classes and market dynamics.

Building Positions Since ETH’s $3,000 Bottom

Since the market downturn following October-November volatility that pushed ETH toward the $3,000 level, Lihua has positioned himself as one of the industry’s most aggressive Ethereum accumulators. Rather than timing the exact bottom, he embraces a disciplined dollar-cost averaging approach, which means short-term price swings of a few hundred dollars hold little concern for his long-term thesis. This consistent buying pattern reflects deep conviction: Ethereum forms the cornerstone of his portfolio, with ETH holdings substantially exceeding positions in other assets like WLFI, BTC, BCH, and BNB.

Contract Dynamics and Market Structure Risk

A critical observation Lihua raises concerns the growing dominance of contract holdings in Ethereum’s price structure. ETH futures contracts are reaching successive new highs and have become a defining price factor, particularly on certain exchanges where contract positions dwarf spot inventory by several multiples. This imbalance presents both opportunity and risk—supply concentration in leveraged instruments can amplify volatility, yet also signals strong institutional conviction about directional moves.

The 2026 Catalyst Matrix

Lihua’s optimism centers on 2026 as a structurally favorable year, with the first quarter positioned as particularly significant. This outlook is grounded in multiple converging forces: anticipated interest rate cuts, evolving crypto-friendly regulatory policies, increased institutional adoption of financial blockchain infrastructure, and growing stablecoin integration into traditional finance. These tailwinds collectively paint a case for sustained upside momentum rather than cyclical trading ranges.

The Accumulation Strategy Through the Bull Run

Given this framework, Lihua remains committed to sustained buying through the anticipated bull market phase. ETH anchors this approach as his largest holding, with supplementary positions providing portfolio diversification. The strategy reflects a conviction that major positions cannot be built at absolute lows—the cost of missing upside outweighs the risk of buying slightly above the bottom. This patient accumulation stance suggests Lihua expects the next cycle to deliver multifold returns, making entry levels across a range of prices far less consequential than securing sufficient allocation.