What FOMC Meetings in 2026 Could Mean for Your Portfolio: Rate Hold Probability Climbs to 82.3%

ChainSpy · 2026-01-21T18:05:17+00:00

Market expectations indicate an 82.3% chance that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in January, reflecting cautious monetary policy amid evolving inflation and labor market resilience. Upcoming FOMC meetings will further shape this outlook.

ChainSpy

2026-01-21 18:05:17

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Market expectations have shifted significantly regarding the Federal Reserve’s near-term policy stance. According to CME’s FedWatch tool, there’s now an 82.3% likelihood that the central bank will maintain current interest rates at its January meeting, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut has declined to just 17.7%.

The January Decision: Latest Probability Breakdown for FOMC Meetings

The upcoming FOMC meetings will be critical for determining monetary policy direction. As traders digest the latest economic data, the consensus increasingly points toward the Fed maintaining its current rate structure rather than making additional cuts. This shift reflects changing inflation dynamics and labor market resilience that have prompted policymakers to take a more cautious approach.

Looking Ahead: When the Next FOMC Meetings Are Scheduled

Beyond January, investors should mark their calendars for two key FOMC meetings scheduled for 2026. The first is set for January 28, 2026, followed by another on March 18, 2026. These sessions will provide crucial opportunities for the Federal Reserve to communicate its economic outlook and policy intentions to the market, potentially influencing asset prices across multiple sectors.

The elevated probability of maintaining rates underscores the Fed’s preference for a wait-and-see approach as fresh economic data continues to emerge in the coming weeks.

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