When will Bitcoin hit the bottom in the bear market? On-chain data offers a new prediction

The recent cryptocurrency market has entered a correction phase. According to the latest analysis by Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, Bitcoin has been in a bear market for over two months. Based on key technical indicators such as the 1-year moving average, this assessment is supported by data. As of January 21, the BTC price fluctuated around $88,470, with an annual decline of 13.45%, clearly showing a significant downward trend.

How On-Chain Data Confirms Bear Market Signals

CryptoQuant, an industry-leading on-chain data analysis platform, tracks multiple indicators including the 1-year moving average. Moreno pointed out that the current Bitcoin price deviates significantly from its historical average, which is a typical characteristic of a bear market. Comparing historical data, similar technical patterns often indicate that the market needs more time for adjustment and recovery.

Analysis of the Bear Market Bottom Price Range

Based on Moreno’s predictive model and Bitcoin’s past performance patterns, the potential bottom range of the current bear market is estimated to be between $56,000 and $60,000. This forecast is derived from analyses of historical price volatility, cost structures, and market participants’ risk tolerance. Currently, the price of $88,470 still has room to reach the predicted bottom, suggesting that the market may need more time to digest the current correction pressure.

Distance Between Current Price and Expectations

According to the latest data, BTC has about 32% downside potential to reach the predicted bottom. While this may sound concerning, it also provides investors with more time for observation and decision-making. On-chain data monitoring shows that the behavior patterns of institutional investors and long-term holders differ from previous bear cycles, which may influence the timing of the bottom formation. Although a bear market tests investor resolve, it is also a process for the market to find balance again.