Ethereum to take off in 2026, Standard Chartered is optimistic. Can the US dollar trend help break through?

Despite recent challenges in the cryptocurrency market, Standard Chartered remains optimistic about Ethereum and points out that the US dollar trend in the second half of the year will be a key factor influencing its subsequent performance. According to Standard Chartered’s latest research report, Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of Digital Asset Research globally, stated that 2026 will be the “Year of Ethereum,” with its performance expected to surpass other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.

Current prices far below targets, structural advantages quietly accumulating

As of January 2026, Ethereum’s current price is approximately $3.04K (24-hour increase of 1.28%), still quite distant from Standard Chartered’s adjusted target price of $7,500 by the end of 2026. Nevertheless, Geoffrey Kendrick remains quite optimistic, believing that as blockchain technology and on-chain applications become increasingly popular, Ethereum will have the potential to “significantly outperform the market.”

Standard Chartered reiterates that, compared to Bitcoin, the engines driving Ethereum’s rise are more robust and diverse. The research highlights Ethereum’s unique structural advantages—its leading position in stablecoins, real-world asset (RWA) tokenization, and DeFi sectors—along with ongoing network scaling upgrades, all forming its moat. It is expected that the “ETH/BTC exchange rate” will gradually rebound to around 0.08, near the highs of 2021, supported by these structural advantages.

Notably, despite the overall slowdown in the inflow of crypto ETFs and corporate funds, the preference for Ethereum remains higher than for Bitcoin. The world’s largest Ethereum reserve company, Bitmine, currently holds 3.4% of circulating ETH and is steadily moving toward a 5% target, indicating that institutional large holders continue to increase their holdings.

Stablecoins and RWA take center stage, Ethereum poised to become the future financial hub

Fundamental data provide solid support for Ethereum. Benefiting from stablecoin activity (accounting for about 35% to 40% of total transaction volume), Ethereum’s trading volume has recently hit record highs. Standard Chartered estimates that the stablecoin and RWA tokenization markets will reach a scale of $2 trillion by 2028, with Ethereum at the forefront of this financial revolution.

Currently, over half of stablecoins and RWA tokenization activities are conducted on Ethereum. As traditional financial activities accelerate their shift on-chain, this proportion is expected to continue growing, further boosting Ethereum’s utility and network activity.

Standard Chartered emphasizes that increasing Layer 1 (mainnet) throughput remains a key factor for Ethereum’s market capitalization growth. Historical experience shows that improvements in network processing capacity often drive market cap expansion, and Ethereum’s ongoing investments in this area are laying the foundation for future growth.

The hidden driver: US dollar trend and the crypto market

The report points out that the US dollar trend is closely related to the direction of the crypto market. Especially in the second half of the year, with potential volatility in the dollar’s movement, regulatory improvements will further boost market prospects. The proposed “Digital Asset Market Clarity Act” in the US is expected to pass in the first quarter of this year. If successful, coupled with the resilient performance of US stocks, it will inject new momentum into the crypto market.

The research indicates that a relatively weaker US dollar in the second half of the year often benefits risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies. Against this macro backdrop, Bitcoin is expected to reach new all-time highs again in the first half, and this wave will also serve as a solid foundation for Ethereum’s long-term trajectory.

Can Ethereum reach $40,000 by 2030? Will the long-term target be achieved?

Standard Chartered shows a more optimistic long-term outlook for Ethereum. Although the overall market sentiment remains weak, and the target price for the end of 2026 has been revised down from $12,000 to $7,500, their medium- to long-term forecasts have been raised. According to the report, Ethereum is projected to reach $15,000 and $22,000 in 2027 and 2028 respectively, hit $30,000 by the end of 2029, and for the first time, set a new target of $40,000 by the end of 2030.

Behind these forecasts lies Standard Chartered’s firm belief in the continuous development of the Ethereum ecosystem and the acceleration of financial innovation on-chain. Geoffrey Kendrick straightforwardly states, “I believe 2026 will be the ‘Year of Ethereum,’ just as 2021 was.” With the US dollar relatively stable in the second half of the year and regulatory environment gradually improving, whether Ethereum can achieve these ambitious goals is something investors should watch closely.