"1.5 Million USD Is Not a Dream" Ark Investment Reveals the Underlying Logic Behind Million-Dollar Bitcoin Market

Ark Invest’s latest research indicates that Bitcoin has officially entered the institutional maturity phase, with market focus shifting from “whether to hold” to “how much to hold.” At the current BTC price of approximately $90,000, Ark analyst David Puell points out that the decisive factor for Bitcoin’s future trend will no longer depend on market acceptance but on the scale of institutional investors’ capital and their holding strategies.

With the launch of US spot ETFs and the rise of digital asset custody companies (DAT), Bitcoin’s investment ecosystem has been fundamentally transformed. David Puell states that during past bull and bear cycles, people were still debating Bitcoin’s investment value; now, the core discussion has shifted to “through which channels and how much allocation” in practical terms.

Institutional Capital Rush, Spot ETF Becomes the Main Channel for Bitcoin Inflows

Since the approval of US Bitcoin spot ETFs in early 2024, they have become the most critical capital entry point into the cryptocurrency market. In just 18 months, total net inflows have surpassed $50 billion, demonstrating the enormous scale of institutional and compliant capital entering the market. Among these, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) have absorbed most of the new funds. These leading products now hold hundreds of thousands of Bitcoins, directly boosting market liquidity and further reducing the circulating supply of Bitcoin.

Compared to the market landscape before ETF listing, the emergence of spot ETFs has significantly lowered the threshold for institutional entry, allowing hundreds of billions of dollars of traditional financial capital to smoothly enter the crypto market.

From 12% of Circulating Supply, How Institutional and Corporate Acquisitions Are Reshaping the Market

Puell points out that ETFs and corporate reserve strategies have collectively absorbed about 12% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply, a figure far exceeding industry expectations. More importantly, this absorption momentum is expected to continue driving price trends into 2025 and even 2026.

Meanwhile, a new market tug-of-war is unfolding: one side involves “ancient whales” holding Bitcoin for over 10 years cashing out at high points, while the other involves institutional funds heavily deploying through ETFs and DAT companies. This shift in holding structure essentially signifies a transfer of power from retail dominance to institutional dominance.

Three-Stage Forecast Model: Target Prices of $300K, $710K, and $1.5M

Ark’s valuation model sketches three forecast blueprints for Bitcoin. In a conservative scenario, the target price is about $300,000; in a base case, about $710,000; and in the most optimistic scenario, an astonishing $1.5 million. All three levels have surpassed the “million-dollar” psychological threshold, indicating that after full institutional participation, Bitcoin’s potential upside far exceeds market consensus.

Puell explains that the core momentum behind the conservative and base scenarios comes from Bitcoin’s function as “digital gold” and a store of value, while the enormous potential of $1.5 million in the most optimistic scenario stems from the complete infiltration of institutional capital and Bitcoin becoming a standard asset allocation globally.

Significantly Reduced Volatility, a Clear Signal of Market Maturity

Bitcoin’s volatility is undergoing a structural shift, which is the most direct evidence of market maturity. Puell finds that Bitcoin’s historical volatility has fallen to new lows, with risk-adjusted returns significantly improving. During past bull market corrections, declines of 30% to 50% were common, but since the bottom in late 2022, the maximum drawdown has been only about 36%, far below historical levels.

This convergence in volatility reflects a change in market participant mentality. Investors are now more rational, avoiding blindly chasing high prices during surges and instead opting for strategic positioning during dips. This mature investment behavior effectively reduces overall market volatility and shortens correction and recovery cycles.

Regulatory Clarity and Policy Support Build Long-Term Structural Advantages

In addition to institutional capital inflows, improved policy environments also serve as long-term support for Bitcoin’s upward trajectory. Clarified regulatory frameworks brought by the Trump administration and strong support from local governments like Texas are significant structural positives. Even if the US’s establishment of Bitcoin strategic reserves may not directly generate new market demand, such measures will help shape a more stable Bitcoin holding structure.

Puell emphasizes that Ark Invest always maintains a long-term perspective of 5 years rather than short-term price predictions. What truly matters is that Bitcoin is transforming into a “less volatile, institutionally widely held” mature asset. This fundamental shift signifies a market evolution far beyond any specific price figures, heralding a complete upgrade of Bitcoin’s role in the global asset landscape.