VanEck 2026 Investment Outlook: Long-term optimism for cryptocurrencies, sustained increase in gold demand

At the beginning of 2026, the global investment markets are experiencing a rare clear outlook. Fiscal policies are trending towards stability, monetary policies are becoming more defined, and major investment themes are clearly outlined. These factors collectively create a more optimistic risk appetite environment. VanEck’s latest quarterly market outlook indicates that after the market volatility of 2025, investment opportunities are becoming more attractive in areas such as artificial intelligence, private credit, gold, India, and cryptocurrencies.

Market Environment Turns Bright, Risk Appetite Rises

Entering the new year, the market faces unprecedented policy clarity. The most significant development is the gradual improvement in the US fiscal situation. Although the deficit remains high, its proportion of GDP has decreased from the historic peaks during the pandemic. This fiscal stability helps anchor long-term interest rates and reduces tail risks.

Regarding interest rate policies, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the current rate levels as “normal,” a statement with considerable implications. The market should not expect aggressive or destabilizing short-term rate cuts in 2026. Instead, the outlook points to stable policies, moderate adjustments, and fewer shocks. This is also a key reason why the market outlook is becoming clearer.

AI Valuation Reset Brings New Opportunities

Some AI-related stocks experienced significant adjustments at the end of 2025, resetting market valuation expectations. Today’s AI investment trading is much more attractive compared to the “stifling” highs of October. Notably, despite this correction, the demand for computing power, token applications, and productivity improvements remains strong.

Nuclear energy stocks, linked to AI-driven power demand, also saw notable price adjustments in Q4. This market re-pricing offers improved risk-reward opportunities for participants with a medium- to long-term investment perspective.

Gold Returns to the Global Currency Stage

Driven by central banks’ gold purchasing demand and the global economy’s gradual move away from US dollar dominance, gold continues to re-emerge as a leading global currency asset. From a technical standpoint, gold prices seem to have surpassed historical support levels. However, VanEck believes this correction is an excellent opportunity to increase holdings. Its structural advantage as a global currency asset remains intact, and the demand foundation remains solid.

Dual Focus on Business Credit and Emerging Markets

After a tough year in 2025, Business Development Companies (BDCs) now see a chance for reassessment. With yields still attractive and credit concerns largely priced in, BDCs appear more valuable than a year ago. Management companies like Ares and others have valuations that are more reasonable relative to their long-term profitability and historical performance.

Outside the US market, India remains a market with significant long-term investment potential. Structural reforms and sustained economic growth provide attractive opportunities for investors.

Cryptocurrency Cycle Changes, Short-term Signals to Watch

Changes are occurring in the cryptocurrency sector. The traditional four-year Bitcoin market cycle was broken in 2025, making short-term trading signals more complex and difficult to interpret. This divergence supports a cautious outlook for the next 3 to 6 months.

However, there is no consensus within VanEck on this matter. Analysts Matthew Sigel and David Schassler hold a more positive view of recent crypto cycles, believing that the long-term bullish case remains valid. This reflects that even amid short-term uncertainty, structural investment opportunities in cryptocurrencies are still worth attention.

Overall, the investment environment in 2026 creates new opportunities across multiple asset classes. Whether it’s traditional gold, structurally promising cryptocurrencies, or AI-related investments with re-evaluated valuations, the clearer policy outlook provides investors with a more stable decision-making foundation.