"The Institutional Era Officially Begins" Ark Investment Reveals Bitcoin's Potential of $1.5 Million by 2030

Ark Invest Digital Asset Research Trading Analyst David Puell recently pointed out that Bitcoin has officially entered the institutional maturity stage. The market’s key issues have shifted from “whether to invest” to “how much to invest” and “through which channels to hold.” Behind this shift is the structural reform brought about by the rise of the US Bitcoin spot ETF and Digital Asset Custody Companies (DAT).

According to the latest market data, the current Bitcoin trading price is approximately $89,960. Driven by continuous inflows of institutional capital, it has demonstrated characteristics of a mature asset. David Puell stated that during past bull and bear cycles, the market was still discussing “infrastructure development,” but now the focus has shifted to “allocation scale” and “holding channel selection.”

ETFs and Institutional Reserves like Fidelity Become Major Capital Inflows

Since the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs in early 2024, the overall net inflow has exceeded $50 billion within just 18 months. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) have become the main absorbers, collectively holding hundreds of thousands of Bitcoins.

Puell pointed out that ETFs and corporate reserve strategies have collectively absorbed about 12% of the circulating supply of Bitcoin, far exceeding previous market expectations. This indicates that institutional funds are holding Bitcoin through more formal and liquid channels, not only enhancing market depth but also further reducing the circulating supply. This momentum is expected to continue until 2026.

Fidelity, as one of the world’s largest asset management firms, has seen rapid growth in its Bitcoin fund, reflecting increased recognition of digital assets by traditional financial institutions. This shift from niche assets to mainstream investments essentially signifies Bitcoin’s transition from a speculative asset to a store of value.

Institutional Allocation Drives Volatility to Record Lows

The deep structural adjustment in the market has also brought about unexpected changes in volatility. Puell found that Bitcoin’s volatility has dropped to a historic low. While a 30% to 50% retracement during past bull markets was normal, since the bottom in 2022, the largest drawdown has been only about 36%, with risk-adjusted returns significantly improved.

This phenomenon is backed by increased maturity among market participants. Puell believes that as more rational institutional investors enter, they do not blindly chase prices during surges but prefer to position themselves during retracements. This “dollar-cost averaging” style allocation strategy effectively reduces market volatility and shortens recovery cycles. This shift marks Bitcoin’s evolution from a “high-volatility speculative asset” to a “relatively stable allocation asset.”

Long-term Outlook and Structural Positive Factors

Despite the market’s tug-of-war between bulls and bears, Ark Invest’s valuation models remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term prospects. By 2030, the target price is approximately $300,000 in a conservative scenario; about $710,000 in a base case; and up to $1.5 million in the most optimistic scenario.

Puell added, “‘Digital gold’ (a store of value) is the core driver in conservative and base scenarios, while the true explosive potential comes from full institutional participation. Regulatory clarity brought by the Trump administration, policy support from local governments like Texas, and the possibility of the US establishing a Bitcoin strategic reserve are all long-term structural positive factors that will shape a more stable holding structure.”

Finally, Puell emphasized that Ark Invest always focuses on a 5-year long-term perspective rather than short-term price predictions. He believes that Bitcoin’s true significance lies in its transformation into a “less volatile, institutionally widely held” mature asset. This shift in identity far exceeds any specific price figure and marks Bitcoin’s official entry into the institutional capital era.