"Daily" BTC Still at a Crossroads: Can the 90s Hold as a Key?

After an initial upward movement, BTC experienced a clear correction pressure this week. The current price is oscillating around $89.52K, and market participants are beginning to reassess the future direction. According to the Daily perspective, the next few days’ performance will directly determine the short-term trend, especially whether it can maintain the psychological threshold of the nine-figure range.

Price Facing Resistance, Short-term Difficult to Make Big Moves

The core issue BTC currently faces is a significant decline in upward momentum. The previously broken high levels have become a strong area of selling pressure accumulation, leading to heavy selling pressure on any rebound. From a technical standpoint, if the price falls below key support levels, it could trigger a chain of stop-losses, further increasing the risk of decline. Therefore, maintaining the current price range is crucial; otherwise, the market may face deeper adjustments.

To re-confirm an upward trend in the short term, the price needs to effectively break through the dense consolidation zone of previous highs. However, considering the strength of current selling pressure, this is unlikely to happen in the coming days. Therefore, rather than actively going long, the market should focus more on whether the support below can be effectively held.

On-chain Demand Insufficient, Waiting for Signal Improvement

From on-chain data, the current market participation is far less enthusiastic than market optimism suggests. Large transaction activities are relatively subdued, indicating that major market participants remain cautious. To support BTC in breaking upward and forming new highs, a noticeable improvement in on-chain demand is needed, but such signs are not yet clear.

However, a turning point may not be far off. As the holiday period ends, many investors who reduced trading during the vacation are gradually returning to the market, which could bring a significant rebound in trading activity in the coming days. Once on-chain activity regains vitality, market sentiment may shift accordingly.

Economic Data as a Touchstone, Fed Stance is the Focus

Starting this week, the US will release several important economic indicators intensively, with tonight’s release of the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data attracting particular attention. Due to the government shutdown last month, the official employment data for December was delayed and incomplete, making the newly released data highly significant for reference.

More critically, these economic indicators will directly influence market expectations of the Fed’s rate cut probability. The market has already largely priced in no rate cuts in the first quarter of this year, but subsequent data could revise this outlook. It is expected that market volatility will increase with the release of these data, and BTC, as a risk asset, will also face direct macroeconomic sentiment impacts.

Overall, BTC is at a very critical juncture. Technically, support levels need to hold; on-chain data awaits improvement; macroeconomic factors depend on the specific performance of economic data. The Daily perspective believes that the market performance in the next three days will shape the upcoming medium-term trend. Investors should stay alert and closely monitor the changes in key indicators.