In 2026, subtle ripples emerge in the NFT market, driven by a profound reshaping of capital and logic

As 2026 begins, the long-silent NFT ecosystem finally stirs with subtle ripples. According to CoinGecko data, since the start of the year, the overall market capitalization of NFTs has increased by over $220 million in the past week, with hundreds of NFT projects experiencing price rebounds, and some projects even recording three- to four-digit gains. For players who have endured consecutive years of downturns, this scene indeed feels like a reunion from another world.

However, the truth behind these ripples is far more worth examining than the superficial green market trend.

Market Rebounds but Liquidity Remains a Chronic Issue Behind the Ripples

According to The Block’s 2025 report, the entire NFT market last year did not see strong new capital inflows. The total annual trading volume was only $5.5 billion, down about 37% compared to 2024; the total market cap of NFTs shrank sharply from approximately $9 billion to about $2.4 billion. Although prices rebounded in 2026, this appears to be a game of small-scale capital within a limited range rather than a genuine influx of new funds.

Detailed data on NFT Price Floors reveal this: out of over 1,700 NFT projects, only 6 have weekly trading volumes reaching the million-dollar level, 14 in the tens of thousands, and only 72 in the few thousand dollar range. Even among top projects with higher trading volumes, the number of actively traded NFTs accounts for only single digits of the total supply, with the vast majority of NFTs having zero transactions.

This extreme lack of liquidity has become the most fatal wound in the market. NFTs that once traded at sky-high prices are now mostly abandoned images; countless project teams have quietly exited through transformation, sales, or shutdowns; the once industry benchmark event NFT Paris also announced its suspension due to funding exhaustion. Ordinary investors need to face this reality: the NFT market is no longer the imaginative track it once was.

New Directions for Capital Flight: From Virtual Images to Real Assets

Amid this ongoing deep winter, both infrastructure and blue-chip projects are staging various survival stories. OpenSea no longer insists on JPEG images, instead turning to token trading through airdrops; the once mainstream NFT public chain Flow is exploring DeFi tracks; Zora has abandoned traditional NFT models and shifted toward a “content as token” new direction.

Even those top-tier NFT projects that were once hot are caught in the dilemma of “fame hard to monetize.” Pudgy Penguins, although gaining IP recognition in mainstream circles and selling physical toys well, still cannot escape the fate of falling floor prices. Web2 giants like Reddit stopping NFT services and Nike selling its RTFKT studio have completely shattered the last illusions of “mainstream adoption.”

But it’s worth noting that the decline of NFTs does not mean the disappearance of collecting and speculative demand; rather, capital is migrating to new battlegrounds. Compared to virtual images on chains, off-chain markets like collectibles and trading cards are still hotly traded—Pokémon TCG’s trading volume exceeds $1 billion, with annual revenue surpassing $100 million. Crypto elites are also voting with their feet: artist Beeple shifted his creative focus to physical robots; Wintermute co-founder Yoann Turpin jointly invested $5 million in buying dinosaur fossils; Animoca Brands founder Yat Siu splurged $9 million on Stradivari violins. Capital is seeking support from tangible value.

Saying Goodbye to Rootless Images: These NFTs Are the True Direction for Capital

After market cleansing, the flow of capital in the NFT space has not completely dried up but has shifted toward assets with high profitability ratios or clear value support.

Speculation and Arbitrage Opportunities: Some players believe the market has bottomed out and attempt short-term trading by capturing price mismatches, which carry relatively high risk-reward ratios.

“Golden Shovel” Attribute NFTs: These are the NFT types with the highest participation and liquidity in the current market. Essentially, these NFTs are no longer collectibles but financial certificates for obtaining future airdrops, often meaning whitelist access. However, once the snapshot is completed or the airdrop is distributed, if the project team does not continue to empower the NFTs, the floor price often plummets or even drops to zero. Therefore, these NFTs are more suitable as short-term arbitrage tools.

Celebrity and Top Project Endorsements: The value of such NFTs is driven by attention economy. For example, Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin recently changed his avatar to Milady NFT, and its floor price rose significantly; HyperLiquid’s Hypurr NFT series, airdropped to early users, also surged. Celebrity effects can significantly boost visibility and liquidity in the short term.

Long-term Value of Top IPs: These NFTs have moved beyond simple hype, with investment logic leaning toward cultural recognition and collection value. CryptoPunks, for instance, have been incorporated into the permanent collection of the Museum of Modern Art (MoMA) in New York, becoming part of art history, which gives these NFTs a relatively anti-dip characteristic.

Acquisition and Revaluation Logic: When projects are acquired by stronger capital entities, the market revalues their IP monetization capabilities. Pudgy Penguins and Moonbirds both experienced significant price increases after acquisition, indicating that the backing capital’s empowerment ability is well regarded by the market.

On-Chain Real Assets: Tokenizing real-world assets provides NFTs with clear tangible value support. Platforms like Collector Crypt and Courtyard allow users to trade ownership of physical cards on-chain, with the platform responsible for physical custody. This model combines blockchain transparency with the value foundation of real assets.

Practical Tooling: NFTs are returning to their utility attributes, serving specific application scenarios. Examples include NFT ticketing systems, voting rights in DAO governance, and NFT-based AI agent identities launched by Ethereum’s ERC-8004, transforming NFTs from pure speculation items into functional assets.

Conclusion: Rational Rebuilding After the Ripples

The subtle ripples emerging in the NFT market in early 2026 are essentially a return to rationality. The market no longer blindly believes in the “little picture myth,” and capital flows toward clearer, more valuable-supported targets. From virtual assets to real assets, from speculative tools to functional attributes, these changes indicate that the NFT ecosystem is undergoing a profound logical reshaping.

Those who still remain in the field are no longer blindly chasing the wind but are participants seeking certainty within the new market framework. Existing capital continues to circulate in this market, but they are voting with their feet—choosing truly valuable, applicable, and backed targets. Whether this ripple can evolve into a new wave depends on whether the market can truly endow NFTs with more than just speculation.