2025 Crypto Market Lies and Truths Clarification

A year-old prediction has now become a touchstone. At that time, the crypto space was filled with grand ambitions, but by the end of the year, we had to confront narratives proven to be lies and truths that were underestimated. 2025 is not last year; this year, the crypto market experienced a dramatic shift from belief to trading, from ideals to reality. If you haven’t examined your own thinking, you’re not investing—you’re guessing blindly. Let’s analyze these lies and truths one by one.

Spot ETF: From Bottom Line to Supply Shock Reality

Many believe that a spot ETF is the ceiling for the crypto market. In fact, it is just a bottom line—a necessary condition, not a sufficient one.

Since March 2024, long-term Bitcoin holders (OGs) have sold approximately 1.4 million BTC, worth $121.17 billion. Imagine how dire the situation would be without the ETF’s support. Despite price pressures, BTC spot ETF still maintains a positive capital inflow of $26.9 billion. This indicates a gap of up to $95 billion, which is the fundamental reason why BTC has lagged behind risk assets like the Nasdaq.

This is not a problem with Bitcoin itself, nor does it require digging into unemployment or manufacturing data—the key issue is the major players and the “4-year cycle believers” undergoing a major rotation. An overlooked lie is: BTC should be highly correlated with traditional financial assets. The reality is quite the opposite. The correlation between Bitcoin and Nasdaq has fallen to -0.42, hitting a new low since 2022. In the long run, this low correlation is a bullish signal for institutional investors’ portfolio allocation.

The supply shock has ended, meaning a new upward cycle may be brewing. Based on a 10% reference coefficient of gold’s market cap, BTC could reach $174,000 in 2026.

Airdrop Glory Not Yet Gone, But Strategies Must Adjust

The crypto community once again claims that airdrops are dead—one of the biggest lies this year. In 2025, nearly $4.5 billion worth of airdrops were released:

• Story Protocol (IP): about $1.4 billion
• Berachain (BERA): about $1.17 billion
• Jupiter (JUP): about $791 million
• Animecoin (ANIME): about $711 million

What truly changed is the tactical approach. Fatigue from staking, upgraded witch hunts, widespread valuation declines—these factors force participants to execute precise “sell on receipt” strategies to maximize gains.

2026 will be a big year for airdrops. Heavyweights like Polymarket, Metamask, and Base are ready to distribute tokens. This is not the time to stop clicking buttons but to stop blindly betting and start focusing on concentrated bets. The “hair-pulling” culture hasn’t disappeared; it has just evolved.

Three Misconceptions and the True Nature of Fee Switches

Most believe that fee switches will directly push up token prices—this is also a lie. Fee switches set a price floor, not a ceiling.

Most protocols’ revenue cannot support their huge market caps. Data from DeFillama shows that, aside from HYPE, all high-revenue share tokens perform better than ETH. The most surprising is Uniswap. After activating the fee switch and burning $100 million worth of tokens, UNI initially surged 75%, then retraced all gains.

This reveals three key insights:

First, token buybacks only set a lower limit, not an upper limit. Everything in this cycle is trading; UNI’s sharp rise and fall are proof.

Second, sell pressure is often overlooked. Most tokens are still in low circulation; unlocking pressure is the real culprit suppressing prices, with buybacks being only one side of the story.

Third, market expectation management is crucial. Good news is priced in; only surprises can drive prices higher.

Stablecoins Going Mainstream, Trading Still the Core

Stablecoins are truly entering the mainstream. When renting a motorcycle in Bali, merchants even asked to pay with USDT on TRON, something unimaginable two years ago.

USDT’s market dominance has fallen from 67% to 60%, but its total market cap continues to grow. Citibank predicts that by 2030, stablecoin market cap could reach $1.9 to $4 trillion. In 2025, the narrative has upgraded from “trading tool” to “payment infrastructure.”

But there’s a common misconception among market participants: thinking that stablecoins facilitate profitable trading. Circle’s IPO, after a huge surge, has fully retraced, and other proxy assets have also underperformed.

The biggest truth for 2025 is—everything is just trading. Crypto payment cards have exploded due to evading strict AML requirements of traditional banks, with each card transaction corresponding to an on-chain transaction. If in 2026 a direct P2P payment system bypassing Visa/Mastercard’s monopoly emerges, that would be a game-changing opportunity.

The Centralization Dilemma in DeFi Is More Serious Than You Think

This is a bold but widely overlooked lie: DeFi’s business and TVL concentration are far higher than in traditional CeFi.

Aave accounts for over 60% of the lending market, compared to JPMorgan’s 12% in the US banking system. Most L2 protocols are essentially tens of billions of dollars in unregulated multi-signature contracts. Chainlink nearly monopolizes all DeFi price oracles.

In 2025, a new conflict emerges: the interests of “centralized equity holders” versus “token holders/DAOs” become more apparent. Who truly owns the protocols, IP rights, and revenue streams? Internal disputes within Aave prove that token holders’ actual power is much weaker than we think.

If the “Labs” ultimately win, many DAO tokens will lose their investment value. 2026 will be a critical turning point for aligning equity and token interests.

Annual Liquidation: The Market Truth After Lies Fade

2025 provides an unavoidable answer: Everything is trading, with no exceptions.

Exit windows are extremely short. No token deserves long-term faith. As a result, 2025 marks the official death of HODL culture, with DeFi evolving into purely transactional on-chain finance, and DAOs gradually shedding their “pseudo-decentralization” masks under regulatory improvements.

The lies about crypto ideals have been shattered by reality. The truth is—markets are always chasing liquidity and trading opportunities. Understanding this is the first lesson for participants.

Content adapted from the annual crypto market review analysis, aiming to provide market insights