January 22 | BTC Trend Analysis

Core Viewpoints

Current Price: approximately $89,916 (as of 09:00 on January 22)

Short-term Outlook: The market is in a state of “Extreme Fear” (Fear & Greed Index at 21), but on-chain indicators show signs of undervaluation. The price is testing the key support level at $90,000, and analysts generally believe a bottom is forming. In the short term, expect consolidation or attempts at a rebound; if support holds, there is potential to challenge the resistance at $92,000.

Key Supports: $88,150 / $87,300

Key Resistances: $90,300 / $92,000

Technical Analysis

Based on the price data from the past 24 hours (09:00 January 21 to 09:00 January 22), BTC shows clear range-bound characteristics:

Support and Resistance Analysis:

• Immediate Support: $87,304 (24-hour low)
• Secondary Supports: $87,625 / $88,154
• Immediate Resistance: $90,296 (24-hour high)
• Secondary Resistances: $90,214 / $90,212

Currently, the price is within the core consolidation zone of $87,300–$90,300, with the psychological level at $90,000 becoming a focal point for bulls and bears.

On-chain Indicators Assessment

On-chain metrics currently indicate BTC is in a relatively healthy valuation zone:

The MVRV ratio of 1.59 suggests the BTC price is relatively reasonable; historically, MVRV below 1.0 indicates significant undervaluation, above 3.7 indicates overvaluation. The current level shows a healthy, neutral-to-optimistic market.

Market Sentiment and Capital Flow

Fear & Greed Index: 21 (Extreme Fear)

• Multiple days in extreme fear
• Historical data shows that extreme fear often signals a medium- to long-term bottom

Funding Rate: 0.0000% (Neutral)

• Perpetual contract funding rates remain neutral
• No signs of extreme long or short crowding
• Market sentiment cautious but not panicked

Short-term Trend Forecast

Bullish Scenario (Probability 40%):

• Successfully defend support at $87,300–$88,150
• Break through resistance at $90,300 and test $92,000
• Trigger short covering and technical rebounds

Neutral Consolidation Scenario (Probability 50%):

• Continue oscillating within $87,300–$90,300
• Await clearer fundamentals or capital flow catalysts
• Time to build a bottom through sideways movement

Bearish Scenario (Probability 10%):

• Lose key support at $87,300
• Test the $85,000–$86,000 zone downward
• Driven by significant negative news

Trading Recommendations

For Short-term Traders:

• Current price near support zone; consider scaling in with small positions
• Stop-loss if breaking below $87,300
• If breaking above $90,300, consider adding positions targeting $92,000

For Medium- to Long-term Investors:

• On-chain indicators show undervaluation
• Extreme fear often correlates with medium- to long-term bottoms
• $87,000–$89,000 area offers good entry points

Risk Warning:

• Watch the $90,000 psychological level closely
• Monitor overall market sentiment shifts
• Control leverage, as market volatility remains high

Overall, BTC is at a critical technical juncture; the outcome at $90,000 will determine the short-term direction. On-chain fundamentals remain supportive, but market sentiment and capital flows need time to recover.