Institutional funds are fully infiltrating! Bitcoin, through DAT files and ETFs, is projected to reach $1.5 million by 2030.

Ark Invest’s latest analysis indicates that the Bitcoin market has evolved from the “to invest or not” stage to a mature decision-making model of “how much to invest and how to hold.” With the booming development of ETFs and Digital Asset Reserve Companies (DAT), institutional funds are entering the market at an unprecedented scale. This not only reshapes Bitcoin’s holding structure but also could drive the asset to reach a target of $1.5 million in the coming years.

ETF and DAT Files Collaborate to Absorb Bitcoin Circulating Supply

Since the approval of the US Bitcoin spot ETF in early 2024, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) have attracted hundreds of billions of dollars in capital. Ark Invest’s digital asset research and trading analyst David Puell pointed out that in just two years, overall net inflows have exceeded $50 billion. These institutional-grade investment tools now hold hundreds of thousands of Bitcoins, further compressing the market’s available circulating supply.

More notably, the rise of DAT (Digital Asset Reserve Files) as a new holding method, alongside traditional ETFs, forms a dual approach. Together, they have absorbed about 12% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply, a figure far exceeding industry expectations and becoming the main driving force behind price trends from 2025 to 2026.

From “Should I Invest” to “How Much to Invest” Mindset Shift

In past bull and bear cycles, the core question was “Is Bitcoin worth investing in?” Now, this question has been answered, and the focus has shifted to “How much Bitcoin should be allocated” and “Through which channels to allocate.”

Puell emphasized that this mindset shift reflects a fundamental change in market participant structure. Institutional investors are systematically planning their holdings through DAT and ETFs, rather than blindly following trends. In contrast, long-term holders who have held for over 10 years, known as “ancient whales,” are taking partial profits at market peaks. These two forces have created the main market confrontation from 2025 onward.

Volatility at Historic Lows: A True Reflection of Market Maturity

A clear market signal is that Bitcoin’s volatility has dropped to historic lows. Puell found that since the bottom in 2022, the largest single drawdown has been about 36%, far below the 30-50% retracement common in past bull markets. Behind this shift is a more rational market participant—when prices surge, they no longer chase blindly but instead take advantage of retracements to reallocate.

This widespread behavioral change directly reduces overall market volatility and shortens recovery cycles. Industry insiders believe this is a key sign of Bitcoin’s transition from a speculative asset to a mature asset characterized by “lower volatility and widespread institutional holdings.”

The Bull and Bear Dynamics of Institutional Funds and Whales

The current market is undergoing a rebalancing of forces. On one side, institutional funds represented by DAT and ETFs continue to buy, while on the other, long-term holders are selling at profit points. Although this tug-of-war may cause short-term volatility, in the long run, the scale of institutional entry has clearly surpassed the selling pressure of traditional whales.

Based on current data (January 2026), Bitcoin’s price fluctuates around $90,000, with a 24-hour increase of about 0.94%, reflecting the market’s attempt to balance ongoing institutional inflows with partial profit-taking.

Three Long-term Scenarios for 2030: From Conservative to Optimistic

Ark Invest has provided three long-term Bitcoin valuation scenarios, specifically until 2030:

Conservative Scenario: Target price around $300,000. This valuation is mainly based on Bitcoin’s function as “digital gold” for value storage.

Base Scenario: Target price around $710,000. This forecast considers steady institutional inflows and the liquidity improvements brought by DAT and ETFs.

Optimistic Scenario: Target price around $1,500,000. The real explosive potential comes from accelerated global institutional allocations, especially under a clearer regulatory environment.

Puell added that realizing the optimistic scenario requires institutional funds to fully utilize new holding mechanisms like DAT, forming a more stable holding structure.

Regulatory and Policy Background Driving Long-term Structural Benefits

Regulatory clarity promoted by the Trump administration and strong support from local governments like Texas for the cryptocurrency industry have laid a systemic foundation for Bitcoin’s long-term development. While the US establishing a Bitcoin strategic reserve may not directly create new demand, it will help shape a more stable global holding structure.

Ark Invest always maintains a long-term perspective of over 5 years rather than focusing on short-term price fluctuations. From this standpoint, Bitcoin is completing its transformation from a “high-volatility speculative asset” to a “mature asset widely held by institutions,” a significance far beyond any single price target. The proliferation of DAT and ETFs is the best testament to this transformation.