The imminent interest rate hike in the Japanese Yen reveals limited impact on Bitcoin based on historical data

The Bank of Japan is about to make an interest rate hike decision, and the market expectations are now quite certain. For investors who follow the global financial markets, how will this change in the yen’s movement influence crypto assets? We find the answer through historical data and market logic.

Clear Expectations of BOJ Rate Hike, Yen Movement Influences International Capital

According to real betting data from the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates this week is 98%, with the target rate rising to 0.75%. This is not the first time the BOJ has adjusted its policy direction. Reviewing recent yen rate hikes:

• March 2024: End of the long-term negative interest rate era
• July 2024: Rate increased to 0.25%
• January 2025: Further increased to 0.5%
• Expected this time: Increase to 0.75%

What chain reactions might a yen rate hike trigger? When the yen’s interest rate rises, cross-border investors using yen as financing currency face higher borrowing costs, which may lead to closing their international market positions. Theoretically, this should exert selling pressure on Bitcoin.

Historical Rate Hike Experience: Limited Market Impact

However, the reality has been much more subdued than expected. Analyzing the three previous rate hikes, Bitcoin markets showed no significant decline before or after, with the trend remaining relatively stable over one or two months. The reason lies in the enormous scale of the global financial system; Bitcoin, as an alternative asset, remains a micro-scale asset class. The impact of yen financing unwinding on Bitcoin is minimal.

It is worth noting that during previous rate hike periods, Bitcoin often experienced substantial gains. The driving force behind this was not the rate hikes themselves but the continuous influx into Bitcoin spot ETFs. Clearly, market sentiment and capital flows are the decisive factors, and the effect of rate hikes is limited.

Current BTC Performance and Christmas Seasonality

As of January 22, Bitcoin is priced at $90.10K, with a 24-hour increase of +1.08%. Attention should be paid to the seasonal influence of Christmas. According to statistical patterns over the past 11 years, the week before Christmas saw 8 upward moves, and the week after saw 6, indicating a generally positive trend.

Although this year’s trend has not shown strong momentum so far, the Christmas effect still exists. Based on historical patterns, low-probability correction events during Christmas are still possible, and the chance of retesting the $80,000 level is not zero. For long-term investors, such price retracements may present better entry opportunities.

Outlook for 2026: New Opportunities in the Crypto Market

Looking ahead, the truly promising developments are the gradual infusion of liquidity and breakthroughs in application scenarios. The RWA (Real-World Asset Tokenization) sector is expected to enter a new development cycle, and the infrastructure for global cryptocurrency payment systems is steadily improving. The accumulation of these long-term factors will push cryptocurrencies gradually into the formal global financial system, bringing genuine investment opportunities.

While yen rate hikes are worth monitoring, they should not be over-interpreted as having a direct market impact. The key is to grasp larger liquidity cycles and industry development trends.

Disclaimer: This article only presents analytical opinions and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should make their own decisions and bear the associated risks.