Charles Schwab Analysis: Top 10 Factors Affecting Bitcoin in 2026

When writing this article, Bitcoin was priced at $89,940, representing a 15.14% decline compared to the same period last year. At this market turning point, the research team from Charles Schwab, a globally renowned financial institution, conducted an in-depth analysis of the 2026 cryptocurrency market outlook, revealing how ten key variables will shape Bitcoin’s performance this year.

Charles Schwab Research Center’s Director of Crypto Asset Research and Strategy, Jim Ferraioli, pointed out that Bitcoin’s price performance is not driven by a single factor but is influenced by both macroeconomic conditions and internal market forces. While improved liquidity conditions are bullish for risk assets, the psychological pressure brought by the halving cycle remains an unavoidable constraint.

Three Major Long-Term Supports and Seven Short-Term Variables

Schwab’s research framework divides Bitcoin’s influencing factors into two levels. In the long term, the expansion of the global M2 money supply, Bitcoin’s deflationary supply growth, and increased market adoption form the three main pillars supporting the price.

In contrast, the short-term situation is more complex and variable. Seven factors—market risk sentiment, interest rate trends, dollar strength, seasonal effects, central bank liquidity conditions, whale activity, and potential financial contagion risks—interact with each other to determine Bitcoin’s specific performance over the coming months.

Bullish Trends at the Beginning of the Year

Entering 2026, several short-term indicators show positive signs. Credit spreads remain tight, and the market has cleaned out many unstable derivatives positions during the intense correction at the end of 2025, resulting in a relatively clean overall positioning.

Under the premise of maintained risk appetite, Bitcoin, as an “extreme risk asset,” should theoretically benefit from a strong stock market. Additionally, monetary policy is expected to turn favorable. As quantitative tightening ends and the balance sheet expands again, abundant liquidity will support the price. Schwab anticipates that interest rates and the dollar will continue to weaken this year, which is overall bullish for the cryptocurrency market.

The Psychological Shadow of the Halving Cycle Is Hard to Dissipate

However, investors should not be overly optimistic. Historical data shows that Bitcoin tends to perform poorly in the third year after halving events. Many investors firmly believe in this cycle theory, and even if fundamentals improve, psychological expectations can themselves become downward pressure.

Schwab pointed out that since 2017, Bitcoin’s annual gains from lows have averaged about 70%. While Jim Ferraioli expects Bitcoin to still record positive returns in 2026, the gains may be far below the historical average, reflecting the ongoing influence of the halving cycle narrative.

Institutional Investment and Policy Transparency: A Turning Point

Another risk factor worth noting is the slowdown in institutional adoption. The market upheaval at the end of 2025 may suppress institutional entry, at least in the first half of the year. However, there is a potential turning point: if the U.S. Congress successfully passes the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, regulatory transparency breakthroughs could accelerate institutional investors’ deployment.

Schwab’s analysis believes that improving policy environments are key catalysts for stimulating institutional demand, and legislative developments in the coming months warrant close attention.

Changes in Correlation Between Bitcoin and Traditional Assets

Finally, Schwab emphasized a structural shift that investors should recognize: the correlation between Bitcoin and traditional assets is being reshaped. Although Bitcoin currently remains highly correlated with large AI tech stocks, its correlation with the overall stock market index has gradually decreased.

This change implies that Bitcoin’s investment logic is evolving from a “tech stock relay” to a more independent asset class, potentially strengthening its hedging properties or positioning as an alternative asset in the long term.