Will Bitcoin reach $2.9 million in 2050? VanEck reveals the underlying logic behind the changes in the US dollar trend

Asset management firm VanEck recently released a research report indicating that under certain conditions, Bitcoin’s price could surpass $2.9 million by 2050. The core logic behind this prediction is not simply speculative pricing but a deep extrapolation based on the evolution of the US dollar trend and the restructuring of the global financial system. As of January 2026, Bitcoin’s current price is approximately $89,940, which stands in stark contrast to the long-term target of $2.9 million, sparking market attention to this potential appreciation path.

Valuation Framework Breaks Traditional: From Trading Asset to Global Financial Infrastructure

This VanEck research report, authored by Digital Asset Research Director Matthew Sigel and Senior Analyst Patrick Bush, is titled “Long-term Capital Market Assumptions for Bitcoin.” Notably, the report is not a price forecast or market hype but a valuation calculation based on “long-term adoption assumptions.” Its central question is: If Bitcoin’s role evolves from a pure trading asset to an integral part of the global financial system, what should its value be?

Unlike traditional stock valuation methods such as P/E ratios or discounted cash flow models, VanEck employs a novel “application scenario” simulation framework. The report proposes a “Base Case” valuation model, estimating that over the next 25 years, Bitcoin’s annualized return will remain stable around 15%. Using this logic, by 2050, the current Bitcoin price of about $90,000 could rise to $2.9 million.

Two Core Assumptions: Global Trade Settlement and Central Bank Reserve Allocation

VanEck’s valuation model is built on two key assumptions, which are decisive factors for Bitcoin’s potential long-term value growth.

First is the global trade settlement function. The model assumes Bitcoin will gradually become a “global trade settlement asset,” potentially handling 5% to 10% of global trade settlement volume. Currently, this proportion is negligible, but if realized, it would significantly increase Bitcoin’s liquidity demand and systemic importance.

Second is central bank reserve allocation. The report suggests that some central banks may, to diversify foreign exchange risks and reduce over-reliance on a single sovereign currency (such as the US dollar), gradually allocate a tiny portion of their foreign reserves into Bitcoin. This reflects the international financial system’s exploration of hedging against the US dollar trend, with Bitcoin’s appeal as a “sovereign-free asset” rising.

However, VanEck admits that these assumptions are still far from reality. Achieving these scenarios requires clearer regulatory frameworks, mature payment infrastructure, and broad political acceptance—all of which are not yet fully in place.

Weakening US Dollar Trend vs. Rising Bitcoin Correlation: A New Global Liquidity Paradigm

From a macroeconomic perspective, VanEck’s research uncovers a noteworthy trend: Bitcoin’s price correlation with global liquidity changes is gradually surpassing its correlation with stocks or commodities.

Further observation shows that Bitcoin’s correlation with the broad money supply (M2) is emerging, while its correlation with the US dollar trend is weakening. What does this imply? In simple terms, Bitcoin is detaching from the dollar-centric pricing logic, with its value drivers gradually becoming globalized. As different countries’ monetary policies diverge, Bitcoin’s US dollar valuation will increasingly reflect overall global liquidity rather than just dollar strength or weakness.

This shift presents new challenges to the US dollar’s trend. As Bitcoin’s correlation with the dollar diminishes, the dollar’s role as the ultimate safe-haven asset for global liquidity may weaken. This is also a key reason central banks are considering diversification of foreign exchange reserves.

High Volatility: The Thorny Path to $2.9 Million

Despite the optimistic long-term outlook, VanEck issues a cautionary note. The research predicts that Bitcoin’s long-term annualized volatility will remain high at 40% to 70%, approaching frontier market characteristics rather than the stability of mature financial assets. This means the path to $2.9 million will not be smooth, with frequent and intense fluctuations along the way.

It is worth noting that even under the most conservative “Bear Case” scenario, VanEck expects Bitcoin to maintain positive growth, reasoning that Bitcoin’s “structural importance” in the global financial system continues to rise. In other words, the long-term bullish outlook is not based on market blind optimism but on the fundamental transformation of Bitcoin’s systemic role.

Asset Allocation Perspective: Adding a “Global Liquidity Hedge” to Portfolios

From an asset allocation standpoint, VanEck’s analysis yields a compelling conclusion: allocating 1% to 3% of a diversified portfolio to Bitcoin can significantly improve risk-adjusted returns.

This does not mean Bitcoin is low risk. On the contrary, due to its limited allocation, its high volatility does not proportionally amplify overall portfolio risk. In other words, Bitcoin’s high volatility, when properly allocated, can serve as a tool to enhance return efficiency.

For investors concerned about US dollar trends and seeking to balance international assets, Bitcoin’s role warrants reconsideration. When the US dollar faces long-term liquidity tightening or relative depreciation risks, Bitcoin as a “sovereign-free asset” becomes an attractive allocation.

Conclusion: From Predictions to Assumptions, From Speculation to Allocation

VanEck’s research on Bitcoin reaching $2.9 million by 2050 fundamentally addresses a deeper question: In an era of weakening US dollar trend and diversified global financial systems, what position should Bitcoin occupy?

This is not a get-rich-quick dream for speculators but a rational extrapolation by institutional investors about the future of global finance. The journey from $89,940 today to $2.9 million in 2050 tests not only Bitcoin’s technological progress but also the global financial system’s acceptance of new reserve assets, regulatory maturity, and the long-term evolution of the US dollar. Patience and risk management are more important in this process than blindly chasing gains.