When Will This Crypto Bull Run End? Fidelity Analysis Points to 2026 Downturn

The question haunting cryptocurrency investors right now isn’t whether profits exist—it’s when the crypto bull run will finally break. Bitcoin’s current price of $89,910 reflects a market already grappling with that uncertainty, down sharply from its October peak near $126,000. According to Jurien Timmer, Fidelity’s Director of Global Macro and a longtime bitcoin bull himself, the answer may be more predictable than most realize: the crypto bull run could be entering its final phase, with 2026 potentially serving as an extended bear market year.

Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Signals Potential Bear Market Ahead

Timmer’s bearish turn is grounded not in sentiment but in pattern recognition. Bitcoin has historically followed a repeatable four-year halving cycle, and the current peak aligns remarkably well with previous ones both in price and time. The October high of $126,000, reached after approximately 145 months of cumulative rallying, fits the expected framework for cycle completion.

“If we visually line up all the bull markets, we can see that the October high after 145 months of rallying fits pretty well with what one might expect,” Timmer noted. Bitcoin bear markets—often called “winters”—have historically lasted roughly a year. This observation leads to a sobering conclusion: 2026 could mark a prolonged downturn phase following the halving-driven cycle’s conclusion.

The analyst remains a secular bull on bitcoin long-term, but the near-term picture appears increasingly challenging. Key support levels are expected to hold between $65,000 and $75,000 during potential weakness, suggesting significant downside risk from current levels if the bearish thesis plays out.

Support Levels and Market Weakness Paint Bearish Picture

The contrast between bitcoin’s recent performance and gold’s strength in 2025 underscores the shifting market dynamics. Gold rallied roughly 65% year-to-date and has maintained most of its gains even during its latest correction—textbook behavior for an asset in a sustained bull market. Bitcoin, conversely, has struggled through 2025 with a negative annual return of -15.24%, suggesting the crypto bull run may have peaked.

Timmer does not expect near-term mean reversion between the two assets, implying gold’s outperformance could persist through the turbulent period ahead. This divergence raises uncomfortable questions about where capital is flowing and which assets investors truly consider safe havens in uncertain times.

Trading Activity Reveals Market Fragmentation

Trading data from early 2026 shows markets remain highly active despite bearish signals. A leading cryptocurrency exchange recorded over $1.25 trillion in total trading volume throughout 2025—an average of roughly $114 billion monthly and its strongest year on record. Spot and derivatives volumes were evenly split, each exceeding $500 billion for the year, indicating sustained participation across product lines.

Altcoins dominated trading activity, reinforcing their role as primary liquidity venues beyond bitcoin and ethereum. Even as overall crypto volumes softened mid-year, baseline activity remained elevated, suggesting structural engagement rather than temporary spikes.

Liquidation Wave Reveals Leverage Risks in Uncertain Times

The pressures building beneath the surface became visible through a massive liquidation event. More than $625 million in leveraged crypto positions were wiped out within a 24-hour period, with losses split roughly evenly between long and short positions across approximately 150,000 traders. The episode served as a stark reminder of how aggressively markets use leverage despite inherent risks.

Hyperliquid, a decentralized derivatives platform, saw the largest single liquidation—a $40.22 million ETH-USD position—and bore the brunt of overall losses with roughly $220.8 million liquidated, predominantly from short positions caught by a price rebound. This volatility stems from macro uncertainties surrounding U.S. trade policy, bond market movements, and speculation around major geopolitical events.

The Bigger Picture: When Will the Crypto Bull Run End?

As Timmer’s analysis suggests, the crypto bull run may already be transitioning toward its conclusion. The convergence of time-based patterns, price levels, and diverging asset performance creates a framework where 2026 could indeed become a “year off” for bitcoin—a sustained bear market phase before the next cycle begins.

For investors, the critical takeaway isn’t panic but preparation. Understanding historical cycles, respecting support levels around $65,000-$75,000, and managing leverage carefully become essential as the market navigates this potential inflection point. Whether Timmer’s forecast proves accurate will become clear over the coming months, but the patterns he’s identified warrant serious consideration as the crypto bull run potentially enters its twilight phase.