Crypto today risks a significant crash: experts identify critical resistance levels

Cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin, are currently facing a period of extreme volatility according to market analysts. Global macroeconomic conditions, combined with technical factors, could lead the crypto market toward a significant correction in the coming days. The outlook emerging from industry experts suggests that economic pressures may outweigh traditional trading chart patterns.

Peter Brandt’s Prediction: When Bitcoin Might Crash

Veteran trader Peter Brandt, with over 40 years of experience in futures and 852,000 followers on X, has identified a critical price range for Bitcoin. According to his technical analysis, BTC could drop to between $58,000 and $62,000 within the next two weeks. Brandt highlighted a key resistance level around $102,300 and emphasized that Bitcoin remains trapped in a bearish trend.

In his statement, the trader showed awareness of the risks associated with predictions, candidly stating he “misses 50% of the time” and is not afraid of criticism if his forecast does not materialize. This reflective approach mirrors the reality of volatility in the crypto market, where unpredictable factors continue to influence price movements.

Macroeconomic Factors Behind the Possible Crypto Crash

Two market analysts, however, pointed out that market drivers go beyond simple chart patterns. Jason Fernandes, market analyst and co-founder of AdLunam, acknowledged that Brandt’s target is technically achievable but highlighted how macroeconomic conditions are the true focus of market decisions.

Fernandes pointed out several pressure elements: inflation in the United States has fallen below 2%, yet central banks maintain a cautious stance and have not adopted more accommodative monetary policies. Any escalation in trade tariffs or geopolitical tensions risks reintroducing inflationary pressures and delaying interest rate cuts. Potential geopolitical tensions, including territorial issues, could also intensify a defensive stance with high rates.

As long as “interest rates remain restrictive and liquidity stays limited,” Fernandes emphasized, “a return of Bitcoin to the $50,000 range remains firmly in play.” Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, agreed with this assessment, stating that although technical setups are important, after years of liquidity withdrawal driven by the Federal Reserve, macroeconomic conditions will likely carry more weight than any single chart pattern.

Crash Probabilities Based on Options Data

Options markets provide further insights into risk perception in the crypto market. Data from decentralized trading platforms and the largest centralized options exchange, Deribit, suggest a 30% probability that Bitcoin will trade below $80,000 by June. This data reinforces expectations of continued and persistent volatility in the coming months.

US Inflation and Implications for Cryptocurrencies

A new analysis conducted by experts from the Peterson Institute and Lazard suggests that US inflation could exceed 4% during the year. Researchers highlight how contemporary tariffs, tighter labor markets, possible migrant expulsions, large fiscal deficits, and more accommodative financial conditions could surpass productivity gains from artificial intelligence and the decline in real estate inflation.

Higher inflation would have significant consequences for the crypto market: it would prevent the Federal Reserve from reducing borrowing costs as aggressively as initially expected by markets and investors. This scenario underscores how the potential crash of Bitcoin and the crypto market in general reflects broader and more complex economic dynamics, well beyond simple technical chart analysis.