Only after gold breaks through $4967 do non-speculative funds become the true driving force

The gold bull market is still unfolding, but the driving forces behind this round of gains are different. Analyst Jeremy Boulton points out that the current rise in gold is driven by “non-speculative” funds, which changes the traditional momentum structure of the gold market. From position data to the dollar trend, everything hints that a deep asset allocation adjustment is underway.

Quiet Changes in Position Structure

The recent surge in gold prices has impressive data:

• All-time high: $4,967 per ounce (recorded on Friday)
• Magnitude of increase: up more than $2,000 per ounce since January 2025
• Position changes: Long positions exceeded 300,000 contracts in January 2025, now only about 200,000

This set of data reveals an interesting phenomenon. Gold prices have risen over $2,000, yet long positions have decreased. Normally, such a rally should attract a large amount of speculative capital to follow and build positions, but in reality, it hasn’t. What does this imply?

Stability of Non-Speculative Funds

Jeremy Boulton’s analysis points to a key aspect: current buyers are mainly not speculators. These funds have several characteristics:

• More stable holdings, with infrequent entry and exit
• Tend to hold long-term after buying
• Insensitive to short-term price fluctuations
• Relatively dispersed position sizes, not concentrated in large orders

What does this mean? It indicates that this rally is not being “pushed down” by large-scale speculative positions. In other words, if speculative funds had heavily entered, a natural resistance level might form. But now, there is no such pressure, leaving more room for gold prices to rise.

The Deep Implication of Dollar Weakness

During the gold rally, the dollar weakened, which is not a coincidence. Jeremy Boulton believes this suggests that demand may stem from countries adjusting their foreign exchange reserve compositions.

From another perspective: if it were purely speculative trading, the relationship between dollar weakness and gold rising would be more direct. But the current situation is more complex—central banks and official institutions may be reconfiguring their foreign exchange reserves, increasing gold holdings while reducing dollar holdings. This is a strategic asset allocation adjustment, not speculation.

The characteristics of such funds are:

• Motivated by long-term strategic needs, not short-term gains
• Buying pace is relatively steady, not a one-time large influx
• Once bought, they tend to hold for a long period
• Insensitive to price fluctuations

Insights for Future Trends

This position structure has an important implication: gold prices may lack strong upward pressure.

In traditional gold bull markets, when large speculative funds enter, a “profit-taking” pressure usually forms—these short-term players take profits at certain levels, limiting further price increases. But if the main buyers are non-speculative funds, this pressure is greatly reduced.

Jeremy Boulton’s logic is: the lack of large-scale long positions means gold could further rise significantly. This judgment makes sense—when the market lacks concentrated speculative pressure, prices often can go further.

Summary

What makes this gold bull market special is that it is driven by non-speculative funds. This is not a game of retail investors and hedge funds, but a strategic asset reallocation by central banks and official institutions. The stability of the position structure implies a lack of strong resistance levels for upward movement, and the potential for further gains may be greater than expected. Going forward, attention should be paid to the dollar trend and the progress of foreign exchange reserve adjustments by various countries, as these will directly influence the supply and demand dynamics of gold.