Understanding Why Gold and Bitcoin Rise Simultaneously in Times of Uncertainty

The financial world is witnessing an unusual phenomenon: gold and Bitcoin are moving simultaneously in response to mounting geopolitical tensions. With Trump implementing tariffs across multiple countries, ongoing unrest in Iran, and a geopolitical risk index at its highest level since the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict, the synchronization between these two assets has become unmistakable.

The Unprecedented Bitcoin-Gold Correlation

The most striking indicator of this shift is the correlation data. Throughout 2025, the 30-day correlation between Bitcoin and gold consistently exceeded 0.6—a threshold that was virtually unheard of before 2020. This represents a dramatic departure from Bitcoin’s historical behavior, when it functioned primarily as a speculative asset, rising and falling in lockstep with tech stocks and the Nasdaq. Today, Bitcoin and gold are increasingly responding to the same macro drivers simultaneously, challenging the conventional wisdom about cryptocurrency’s role in portfolios.

Three Core Reasons for This Simultaneous Movement

The structural shift behind this correlation tells an important story about how markets are evolving. Institutional capital flows matter more than ever. ETF inflows have brought money managed under strict portfolio diversification principles—not the emotional “buy high, sell low” pattern of retail traders. These professional investors allocate to Bitcoin much like they do to gold: as a hedge against systematic uncertainty.

The second factor is the accelerating trend toward de-dollarization. As the U.S. weaponizes tariffs and sanctions, global actors increasingly seek alternative stores of value. Both gold and Bitcoin appeal to those seeking to reduce dependence on traditional currency reserves.

The third catalyst is crypto’s own maturation. Bitcoin’s volatility has moderated, and its liquidity has deepened. These improvements have made it more suitable for institutional allocation—less “digital casino,” more “digital gold.”

From Risk Asset to Weak Safe-Haven: Bitcoin’s Evolving Role

This evolution doesn’t mean Bitcoin has become genuine gold. The distinction matters. Bitcoin still functions as what we might call a “weak safe-haven asset”—it performs admirably during periods of moderate geopolitical stress, when uncertainty rises but systemic panic hasn’t set in. The current environment—Greenland tariffs, Iran tensions—fits this profile perfectly: enough fear to drive safe-haven demand, but not enough to trigger forced liquidations.

The Limits of This Protection

History offers a sobering reminder. During acute financial crises, such as the yen arbitrage collapse in August 2024, Bitcoin experienced indiscriminate selling pressure alongside riskier assets. In a true liquidity crisis or market panic, the simultaneous rise of Bitcoin and gold would abruptly reverse. Bitcoin’s safe-haven credentials remain conditional, dependent on the intensity of the shock. We’re observing an asset class in transition, but one whose ultimate stress-test performance remains unproven.