Why Quantum Computing Stocks Worth Avoiding in Early 2026

As investors navigate the early months of 2026, two names that dominated quantum computing conversations throughout last year are raising red flags. Rigetti Computing and D-Wave Quantum captured enormous investor enthusiasm in 2025, with shares rallying sharply on sector optimism. Yet underneath the enthusiasm lies a troubling reality: both companies sport valuations that look stretched relative to their actual business performance. More fundamentally, their near-term earnings catalysts suggest disappointing results are likely ahead—making this an ideal time to sidestep these particular plays.

The Revenue Reality Behind Rigetti’s Rally

Start with Rigetti Computing, which bills itself as a pioneer in the quantum computing space. The company claims legitimate credentials: it has developed, sold, and operated quantum computers for paying clients since 2017. And yes, Rigetti generates actual revenue from these operations. But here’s the catch—the actual dollars involved remain remarkably small relative to investor expectations.

Through the first three quarters of 2025, Rigetti generated just $5.2 million in revenue. This represents a 39% decline compared to the same period in 2024. The trajectory matters here: a company losing revenue momentum heading into an earnings season is rarely a positive signal.

Now, Rigetti did announce two significant quantum computing system sales in October 2025, totaling approximately $5.7 million—more than the entire revenue collected during the first nine months of the year. The problem? These sales won’t appear in quarterly results until the first half of 2026, most likely Q2. When Rigetti reports its Q4 2025 financial results in March 2026, those major deals won’t be reflected in the numbers.

This timing creates a specific risk: analyst forecasts currently expect Rigetti to deliver approximately $7.6 million in Q4 revenue. But based on current trends and the booking delays for recent sales, the company appears positioned to miss these targets. On the earnings side, Wall Street has penciled in losses narrowing to around $0.03 per share. Missing on both the top line and bottom line simultaneously rarely sends stock prices higher. Until this earnings disappointment proves manageable, staying away from Rigetti stock makes sense.

D-Wave: Big Valuations, Small Fundamentals

D-Wave Quantum presents a similar paradox, though on a slightly larger scale. The company operates with a market capitalization approaching $9.7 billion—yet through the first three quarters of 2025, total revenue barely exceeded $22 million.

The positive news: D-Wave did experience genuine momentum, with sales more than tripling during 2025 compared to prior years. The company projected finishing the year with less than $26 million in total revenue. The concerning news: virtually none of that revenue translated into profits. D-Wave remained firmly unprofitable through 2025, with Wall Street analysts not forecasting a return to profitability until 2030 at the earliest.

This disconnect deserves scrutiny. How does a company burning cash while generating less than $26 million in annual revenue justify a $9.7 billion valuation? The only logical answer involves pure sentiment. Investors are clearly betting on what D-Wave might become rather than rewarding what the company currently produces. That’s a bet premised on momentum and sector enthusiasm rather than concrete business fundamentals.

Investor Takeaway: Separating Hype from Opportunity

Both Rigetti and D-Wave exemplify a familiar market pattern: when an emerging sector captures investor imagination, early valuations can detach dramatically from financial reality. The quantum computing space undoubtedly holds tremendous long-term potential. Yet the recent surge in these particular stocks owes far more to investor speculation than to operational breakthroughs or business progress.

For investors seeking exposure to quantum computing’s potential, trading these specific stocks at current valuations amounts to catching speculation rather than investing in fundamentals. The wiser course involves waiting for either meaningful business progress or more reasonable valuation levels. Until then, keeping these names off your portfolio remains the prudent choice.