‍#当前行情抄底还是观望？

This past week (early February 2026) has seen historic moves—especially in gold and silver, which haven’t seen single-day drops like this since the 1980s.

Usually, when stocks go down, gold goes up. This week, that rulebook was thrown out the window. Here’s why:
The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair was the primary catalyst. This spiked the U.S. Dollar and sent real yields higher, making non-yielding assets like gold and silver much less attractive instantly.
When the market gets hit this hard, big players face margin calls. To cover their losses in one area (like tech stocks or crypto), they are forced to sell their most liquid winners (gold and silver).
Silver had gained nearly 280% in a year, and Gold was sitting at record highs near $5,600. When prices go parabolic, they become fragile. The CME Group raising margin requirements (from 11% to 15% for silver) acted like a pin to a bubble, forcing over-leveraged traders to exit all at once.

U.S. stocks, particularly Big Tech, are facing a reality check on AI monetization.
Bottom-Fishing Signals: Is it time or should you wait?

"Buying the dip" is a strategy; "catching a falling knife" is a hazard. To identify a true bottom, watch for these three signals:

Look for a "long wick" on a daily candle—where the price plunges and then recovers half its losses in a single day. This shows that the sellers are exhausted and the "big money" has stepped in.

The Dollar Index Peaking: A bottom in gold and crypto usually won't stay firm until the U.S. Dollar stops its vertical climb. If the Dollar Index starts to consolidate or drop, that’s your green light.
In 2026, keep an eye on the "paper vs. physical" gap. If the price of silver on your screen is dropping, but the price to actually buy a physical silver coin is staying high, it means the industrial demand (AI, solar) is still there, and the "paper" crash is temporary.

the current $4,900–$5,000 range for gold as a potential "structural" support. However, with the Chinese Lunar New Year (Feb 16–23) approaching, liquidity might stay thin, which could lead to one more "flush out" before a real recovery.
Shorts and Strategies

In a market this volatile, "holding and hoping" can be painful.

Tactical Shorting: Shorting the "high-beta" assets (like silver or altcoins) was the play of the week as they fell faster than the broader market.

Moving to 30-40% cash isn't "quitting"; it's "reloading." It gives you the "dry powder" needed to buy when the RSI (Relative Strength Index) on gold and silver finally hits oversold levels (below 30).

We’re seeing a shift toward defensive sectors which are holding up better than the speculative AI and crypto plays.
In early February 2026, Bitcoin is navigating a "crypto winter" style correction after peaking at an all-time high of approximately $126,000 in October 2025. As of today, February 7, the market is attempting to find a floor after a brutal week that saw BTC dip as low as the $60,000 – $63,000 range.

Key Support Levels (The "Buy Zones")

If you are looking to bottom-fish, these are the three battlegrounds where buyers are likely to step in:

$68,000 Moderate Home to the 200-week EMA.

This is the immediate "line in the sand" that bulls need to defend to prevent a deeper slide.

$62,800 Strong The 1.272 Fibonacci extension level.

Many institutional "buy-the-dip" algorithms are clustered around this zone.

$60,000 Critical Major psychological support and the lower band of the long-term uptrend channel.

A break here could trigger a "capitulation event" toward $52,000.
The Bear Case

If the selling pressure from the $3 billion ETF outflows seen in January continues, the "Ultra-Bearish" target sits at $52,000 - $55,000. This aligns with the 1.414 Fibonacci extension and would represent a full reset of the 2025 gains.

Recommended Entry Alerts

To trade this effectively without being glued to the screen, I suggest setting your alerts at these specific price points:

Alert 1: $68,200 (Watchful)

Notifies you that BTC is testing the 200-week EMA. Watch for a "long-wick" recovery on the 4-hour chart.
$63,000 (Accumulation Start)
If reached, the RSI will likely be deeply oversold (<30). This is where Dollar Cost Averaging typically becomes mathematically attractive.
$84,000 (Confirmation)
This is the "Bull Invalidation" of the current downtrend. Crossing back above this level suggests the local bottom is in and the trend has reversed.
Currently, traders give a 69% chance that BTC will trade consistently sub-$70,000 through the rest of February.

The Silver/Gold Factor: Interestingly, while BTC is falling, Gold and Silver have seen massive inflows. Bitcoin is currently failing its "digital gold" test and is being traded more like a high-beta tech stock.
While Bitcoin is searching for its floor, Ethereum and Solana are currently "high-beta" assets—meaning they are dropping faster because traders use them to raise liquidity.

Ethereum has had a rough February so far. After failing to hold the $3,000 level in January, it has slipped into a descending wedge.

$2,690 Immediate

This is the current battleground. If ETH closes a daily candle below this, the bear trend is confirmed for the month.

$2,120 - $2,200 Strong

This matches the June 2025 "accumulation zone." Historically, the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator hits a "buy the fear" signal here.

$1,875 Ultra-Bear

The 200-week EMA. A drop to this level would be a 60% correction from the 2025 highs—a "generational" entry point if it holds.
ETH must reclaim and hold $3,000 to stop the bleeding.

Solana (SOL): Testing the $100 Psychological Floor

Solana has been the "speed demon" of this cycle, but its 1,500% rally from 2022 is seeing a major pullback. It recently fell from its $260 resistance down to the double-digit range.
$95 - $100 Psychological

This is the "make or break" zone. A bounce here could form a V-shaped recovery toward $150.

$82 - $85 Technical

A high-volume support node. If $100 fails, expect a quick "wick" down to this area.

$74 Structural

The absolute floor for the current medium-term bullish structure. Losing $74 would likely signal a "Crypto Winter" for SOL.
The "Bull" Alert: Set an alert for $116. Reclaiming this level flips the immediate bearish bias back to neutral/bullish.

Comparative Strategy

If you are planning to bottom-fish, notice the difference in their RSI (Relative Strength Index):

ETH is showing "Bullish Divergence" (price is lower, but RSI is holding steady), suggesting the selling pressure is exhausting.

SOL is seeing "Aggressive Taker Selling," meaning big players are currently hitting the "sell" button more than the "buy" button.

In this environment, "Alt-coins" often bottom after Bitcoin stabilizes. If BTC is still shaky at $68,000, ETH and SOL might still have one more "capitulation wick" left in them.
‍$BTC $ETH $SOL