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This week, global markets are entering a "storm" mode, with retail, non-farm payroll, and inflation data all releasing. Key points to watch:
🗓️ Tuesday evening: December retail data. As a "weather vane" for consumer countries, this directly reflects the purchasing power of American consumers, and its importance is self-evident.
🗓️ Wednesday evening: Major non-farm payroll & unemployment rate (revised). The market expects the unemployment rate to remain at 4.4% with 70,000 new jobs. However, considering the previous poor performance of "small non-farm" ADP and job vacancy data, there's a big question mark whether this major non-farm report can withstand the pressure. Additionally, the revised data for the 2025 non-farm baseline will be released, which is crucial for setting the tone of the employment market.
🗓️ Thursday early morning: 10-year U.S. Treasury bond auction. Pay close attention to yield movements. On Thursday evening, initial jobless claims will also be released. Last week’s data exceeded expectations, so be alert for continued cooling in the employment market.
🗓️ Friday evening: January CPI inflation data. The highlight of the week! The market forecasts inflation will drop to 2.5%. If in line with expectations, a wave of "interest rate cut" trading opportunities may follow.
⚠️ Reminder: Volatility this week will be extreme, so it is recommended to control your positions carefully.