ALengHODL

Currently, Bitcoin is in a technical rebound window during a bear market. The macro environment is facing triple bearish factors (non-farm payrolls - a significant negative impact of 92,000, oil at $120 leading to inflation concerns, and the Federal Reserve not cutting interest rates), which reinforce the overall bearish trend. Technically, the 4-hour MACD is about to form a golden cross, providing short-term rebound momentum, but the daily MACD is about to form a death cross, and the weekly long upper shadow exerts double pressure, limiting the rebound space. Today's core trading strategy is:

⚠️The U.S. will release February non-farm payroll data tonight at 9:30 PM. Market expectations are for an increase of 59,000 jobs, nearly halving the 130,000 jobs added last month. Retail data will also be released simultaneously. This is positive for interest rate cuts.
The current situation is not just about the data itself—it's compounded by the weekend war effect. If the data turns out to be disappointing tonight, investors are likely to be reluctant to hold risk assets over the weekend, and selling pressure before Friday's close could be stronger than usual. 📉

The current Bitcoin daily chart continues its strong upward trend, with a large bullish candle yesterday pushing up 4,000 points. The market was driven by both positive news (Iran diplomatic easing) and technical resonance. However, the core resistance zone at 74,300–74,900 remains effective. On the 15-minute chart, a bearish butterfly pattern and wave expansion signals have appeared, indicating a double confirmation of a short-term reversal. It is recommended to take light short positions in the 74,600–74,900 range, with strict stop-losses. Pay close attention to whether tonight’s European an

Currently, Bitcoin is in a bear market rally phase, with today's surge clearing approximately $100 million in short liquidity. However, macro factors (Hormuz blockade, Federal Reserve not cutting interest rates, Asian stock markets broadly declining) have not improved, and the rally is more likely a prelude to a subsequent dip after gaining liquidity. On the operational level, Arling holds 71,600 short positions (tiered take profit at 70,200/68,200), and is also looking for higher-level shorting opportunities at 74,300–74,900 and 82,600–83,000; if it falls back to 67,600–68,300, it can combine

Bitcoin is currently in a bear market consolidation and decline phase. The macro environment is under dual pressure from the escalation of the US-Iran war and the Federal Reserve's decision not to cut interest rates. Technically, the weekly trend line has broken down and not recovered, while the daily MACD is shrinking and closing higher, indicating a generally bearish pattern. In terms of trading strategy, yesterday's short position (69,200) successfully gained approximately 2,000 points; the current focus is on going long around 63,900 (double harmonic resonance golden pit), as well as short

Good news! The United States just announced their January CPI inflation data.
It is the lowest since May of last year. This definitely has some impact on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations.
We can see that the market has just experienced a certain rally.

The current market situation can only be described as "a leak in the house, followed by a night of rain." We are witnessing the simultaneous explosion of some extremely low-probability extreme events. Gold and silver prices plummeted sharply last week, and tech stocks (especially the semiconductor sector) experienced a 15%-20% "wipeout" decline within just a day or two. This scene of multiple markets collapsing at the same time has directly driven investor confidence to freezing point.
The market is now extremely worried about Strategy. Everyone is speculating: Will Saylor be forced to reduce

Can it still hold up? The ETH death spiral has reached a critical point, and the giant "Lede Capital" is facing a liquidation crisis!
Yi Lihua's $1 billion ETH revolving loan position on Aave is facing a devastating blow. Yi Lihua's strategy: collateralize ETH on Aave → borrow USDT → buy more ETH. As ETH drops below $2,100, his net assets have shrunk by 70%. Yi Lihua has already begun large-scale selling of ETH on the secondary market to repay Aave debt, reducing his position from $1.1 billion to $1 billion.