Bitcoin's Bear Market Drop Intensifies Below Key Thresholds

Bitcoin is caught in a fierce selling wave, and the technical breakdown is becoming increasingly concerning. After losing critical support levels, BTC has plunged below the $80,000 mark, with market participants now bracing for deeper declines. The shift from bullish optimism to risk-averse positioning happened remarkably fast, with many analysts observing that Bitcoin is retracing a familiar playbook—one that has preceded major bear market cycles in the past.

As of the latest update, Bitcoin is trading around $66,280, down 1.14% over the last 24 hours, reflecting the sustained downward pressure in the market. The question now isn’t whether there will be a short-term recovery, but rather how deep this bear market drop might extend.

Technical Breakdown: BTC Slips Through Critical Support

The immediate price action tells a harsh story. Bitcoin dropped sharply in the last trading session, pushing toward $77,600 levels and testing ten-month lows. What makes this particularly worrisome for bulls is that BTC has broken below the $80,000 support zone—a level that historically marked the true market mean and served as an anchor for bullish traders.

The failure to defend this zone is a red flag. When major support crumbles this decisively, it often signals the beginning of more extended weakness ahead.

Historical Patterns Suggest Extended Bear Territory

Perhaps the most alarming observation comes from technical analysis comparing current price action to previous bear market cycles. The 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) is critical here—this indicator has historically acted as a dividing line between risk-on and risk-off market regimes. When Bitcoin breaks below this level, it has traditionally preceded prolonged bear market phases.

What happened recently mirrors the breakdown that occurred in April 2022, just before a sustained bearish decline. Since that critical EMA crossover, BTC has already fallen roughly 17%, dropping from the $90,000 range down toward current levels. The historical parallel is striking: the same pattern preceded one of crypto’s most challenging periods.

Some traders are now eyeing substantially lower targets. Support zones near $74,400 represent the next potential floor, while more aggressive bear case scenarios point toward $49,180 if the selling pressure persists and previous support structures continue to fail.

On-Chain Metrics Flash Bearish Structural Signals

Beyond technical chart patterns, the on-chain data landscape is equally concerning. According to CryptoQuant’s latest analysis, Bitcoin is now trading below the realized price—the average cost basis at which long-term holders (those holding for 12–18 months) last moved their coins.

This is significant. When BTC trades below realized price and remains stuck there, it typically marks a transition from normal market corrections into a deeper structural bear phase. The current situation shows realized price acting as overhead resistance, meaning that whenever Bitcoin attempts a bounce, holders are motivated to sell at breakeven just to escape losses.

The combination of these factors—price below realized cost, widespread negative profitability, and slowing growth metrics—aligns perfectly with extended bearish cycles seen in past market cycles. These are the warning signs that distinguish temporary pullbacks from genuine downturns.

Can the $84K CME Gap Offer Short-Term Relief?

Not all is hopeless on the shorter-term horizon. Some traders are watching a CME futures gap near $84,000 that could act as a temporary “price magnet.” CME gaps, which are unfilled price levels where futures trading left gaps in the market structure, often attract price action as traders seek to fill them.

Bitcoin might find a brief bounce toward that zone in coming weeks, providing tactical relief for traders caught on the wrong side. However, unless Bitcoin can decisively reclaim major support and close above $80,000 on a sustained basis, any rally would likely represent a dead cat bounce—temporary weakness relief in an otherwise deteriorating trend.

The Bear Market Drop Accelerates

The convergence of technical breakdown, historical pattern repetition, and deteriorating on-chain structure paints a bearish picture. Bitcoin’s drop through key support zones, combined with the breakdown below the 21-week EMA, has set the stage for what could be an extended bear market phase. While short-term bounces remain possible, the broader trajectory remains decidedly negative.

Traders and investors should remain vigilant and manage risk accordingly. The bear case is increasingly supported by multiple analytical lenses. Not financial advice.