BTC hovers around the 68,473 support level, with 70,126 becoming the key recovery target.

Bitcoin has recently been under continuous pressure, currently fluctuating around $67,730, with a decline of -0.22%. The market is experiencing a significant correction cycle, and the price level of 70126 is gradually becoming a key target for investors.

Institutional Funds Flow Out Significantly, Short-term Holders Deeply Lossed

Market data shows a clear divergence of funds. Large crypto asset management firms like Grayscale are accelerating redemptions, withdrawing up to $2.59 billion. This trend reflects cautiousness among institutional investors, contrasting sharply with retail investors still trying to bottom fish.

More notably, the cost basis data for short-term holders—currently at $90,000—indicates that investors who bought in recently are facing unrealized losses exceeding $20,000. This not only highlights the depth of the market correction but also underscores how severe the current market situation is.

20-Week Moving Average Historically Crossed Below 50-Week Moving Average, Worst Performance in 8 Years Sends Warning

From a technical perspective, a more warning-significant signal has appeared—the 20-week moving average has fallen below the 50-week moving average. This is the worst technical performance in the past 8 years. The two-month decline has accumulated to 22.3%, indicating strong downward momentum.

However, according to historical patterns, the supply-profit ratio currently sits between 50% and 55%, a range often marking market bottoms. This extreme condition contrasts with the pessimistic technical signals, suggesting the market may be brewing a rebound.

Supply-Profit Ratio Reaches Bottom, 70126 Becomes Rebound Focus

The key support level is around $68,473. If this level is broken, the price could drop directly to $66,500. But if this support holds, the first target for a rebound is $70,126—a level with significant technical importance.

Not only does 70126 represent a short-term rebound target, but it also forms a perfect “spring” effect with the current extreme compression in the market. The more suppressed the market, the more vigorous the rebound once it occurs.

Short-term Trading and Mid-to-Long-term Allocation Strategies

Short-term Strategy Guidance:

Aggressive investors may consider a light position near $68,473, aiming for targets at $69,240 and $70,126. Risk management is crucial—if the rebound shows weakness, set a stop-loss at $67,200.

If the price strongly breaks above $68,473 and confirms, gradually establish short positions with a target around $66,500. During the process, if the price hits the intermediate level of $67,892, protect existing profits promptly.

Mid-to-Long-term Allocation Ideas:

If the price continues to decline to $65,000 or even $62,500, these could be excellent accumulation opportunities for long-term investors. Consider phased entries to build a long-term position.

Overall, although the market currently faces technical pressure, on-chain data and historical patterns suggest that the level of 70126 is likely to become the next key psychological and technical resistance. Rational analysis, risk management, and phased operations remain the best strategies to navigate the current market.