Market Analysis:

On March 3rd, amid the rapid escalation of the Iran situation, the market experienced an epic energy panic and asset re-pricing. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz triggered a surge in energy prices, which transmitted to the crypto market, while gold hit new highs but was pressured by profit-taking, presenting a rare "oil up, crypto up, gold down" divergence pattern!

Macro News:

1. Spot gold briefly surged to $5,387 on March 2nd, hitting a record high and accumulating large profit-taking. A short-term dip of about $40 occurred in the early morning, breaking below $5,280 in a rapid plunge, which is a typical signal of profit-taking consolidation. Market analysis indicates that one of the main reasons for the plunge in precious metals is profit-taking by funds;

2. Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz (20% of global oil transportation routes) pushed up crude oil prices, leading to a strengthening of the Canadian dollar; meanwhile, the "limited" nature of the conflict (not spreading to the entire Gulf) caused a marginal cooling of market risk aversion. Funds withdrew from gold and shifted to cryptocurrencies and other risk assets, directly triggering gold’s decline and crypto’s rally in the early morning;

3. Bitcoin briefly broke through the $70,000 mark in the early morning. In the past 24 hours, a total of 100,000 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $370 million. Short positions were forced to close after breaking through key resistance levels, creating a short squeeze spiral that further pushed prices higher;

4. After a sharp rise in the crypto market early morning, prices have gradually pulled back, currently in a short-term consolidation phase. The subsequent trend heavily depends on crude oil prices and the Iran situation. It is difficult to form a sustained trend; if the Iran situation eases and crude oil prices fall, consider exiting to avoid a correction risk.

Trading Tips: Please inquire during the live session.

Special Reminder: BTC and ETH surged last night and are now in overbought zones. Although gold has pulled back, it remains in an overbought state in the medium to long term, prone to sharp intra-day drops and a double-sided kill. Heavy positions are strictly prohibited.

Finally, I wish everyone a happy Lantern Festival, family reunion, safety, and smooth sailing!
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