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Today’s “Macro Blind Box” is all about the U.S. February CPI~
It’s time for the US stock market and #Bitcoin to play the high-stakes game~
The market’s current consensus is that the year-over-year CPI is around 2.4%–2.5%, indicating that overall inflation remains moderate but still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
In other words, this data isn’t just a number; it directly influences rate cut expectations, the dollar’s movement, and risk asset sentiment.
Three scenarios:
① CPI below expectations (cooling inflation)
The market will re-commit to rate cuts, and US stocks and Bitcoin are likely to rebound~
② CPI in line with expectations
The market may initially fluctuate, waiting for the next macro signals.
③ CPI above expectations (hotter inflation)
The narrative of “higher interest rates for longer” returns, US stocks may pull back, and Bitcoin could also be pushed down to key support levels.
So tonight is basically a macro version of the “high-stakes game”~
But seasoned traders know:
The real profit isn’t from guessing the data correctly,
It’s from understanding your positions before the volatility hits.