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The US Dollar Index #USDINX has entered an upward trend~
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I'm releasing some data today that could be very important or not so important, depending on how you interpret it~
① Trend chart of the #IXIC index around the bursting of the internet bubble in 2000.
② US unemployment rate data trend chart from 1999-2004.
③ US unemployment rate data trend chart from 1999-2026. (The peak impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is crystal clear)
④ US unemployment rate data trend chart from 2022-present.
⑤ Latest monthly K-line chart of the Nasdaq index #IXIC.
Share your thoughts on these objective data~
Specific data can be found on the Department of Labor official webs
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This song feels really special~
Maybe I'm really getting old~
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As of March 2026, the global stablecoin market has shown strong growth momentum, with a total market capitalization surpassing $312 billion. Currently, the market remains highly concentrated, with the top two giants (Tether and USDC) accounting for nearly 90% of the market share.
USDC0,01%
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The recent global situation indeed feels increasingly "off"~
Geopolitical conflicts, economic divergence, policy swings—various variables seem to be stacking up simultaneously. On the surface, financial markets are still functioning, but underlying uncertainties are gradually rising. Many crises are never sudden; they often brew slowly within the macro environment and are only ignited suddenly at a certain point~
When markets operate at high levels for a long time and macro variables begin to change intensively, the trend often enters a sensitive phase. It may still appear as volatility on the
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Today’s “Macro Blind Box” is all about the U.S. February CPI~
It’s time for the US stock market and #Bitcoin to play the high-stakes game~
The market’s current consensus is that the year-over-year CPI is around 2.4%–2.5%, indicating that overall inflation remains moderate but still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
In other words, this data isn’t just a number; it directly influences rate cut expectations, the dollar’s movement, and risk asset sentiment.
Three scenarios:
① CPI below expectations (cooling inflation)
The market will re-commit to rate cuts, and US stocks and Bitcoin are like
BTC2,63%
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Here's an interesting data point~
SharpLink Gaming released a report stating that due to the decline in Ethereum prices, the company's net loss in 2025 will reach $734.6 million. But at the same time, quarterly staking income has increased by nearly 50%, reaching $15.3 million.
This is a typical crypto market logic: the business is making money, but the price is losing money~
Many people only focus on on-chain revenue but overlook the cyclical fluctuations of asset prices. Wave theory explains it clearly: during large-scale corrections, the destructive power of price movements often exceeds im
ETH3,33%
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I started clearly bearish on Bitcoin around mid-August 2025, which many people found hard to believe at the time. Even when new highs were reached in October, I still said one thing: a new high does not change the overall bear market structure. As the market has developed to this point, it has also given a fairly honest answer~
There's a simple logic here: trend reversals often occur at the strongest price points. A new high at a high level is sometimes not a continuation of a bull market, but rather the final emotional surge at the end of a cycle. In wave structures, this stage often correspo
BTC2,63%
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Regarding the upcoming rhythm of Bitcoin, there will actually be a phase that appears very soon~
Many people are getting nervous now at the sight of a decline, as if every bearish candle is announcing an eternal bear market. But if you extend the time frame, the market often goes through a very classic stage: the more it falls, the more it’s worth buying~
From a wave structure perspective, when a major correction is nearing its end, the price usually repeatedly dips and sentiment keeps cooling down, with the market full of voices saying “It’s over if it drops a little more.” But it’s precisely
BTC2,63%
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Banks and asset management sectors declined sharply~
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A common phenomenon in the market is that most people only realize the risk has been there all along when the trend actually materializes. When prices start to decline, many will say it's a "normal correction"; if it drops further, they'll interpret it as a "shakeout"; only when the trend truly deteriorates do they realize that the risk was clearly written in the chart all along, but no one was willing to read it carefully at the time.
Trend changes never happen overnight; they gradually become apparent as higher highs stop being made and lower lows continue to shift downward. In wave structu
BTC2,63%
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This time the US-Iran conflict is actually quite interesting~
Many people's first reaction is "The black swan has arrived," but if you look closely at the rhythm, this event didn't come out of nowhere as a sudden surprise. It’s more like a gray rhinoceros slowly approaching from afar~
Market fear of black swans often erupts suddenly; but what really torments people is usually the gray rhinoceros — everyone can see the risk but still feels it’s not imminent. As a result, prices oscillate while gradually pricing in the risk.
From Dow Theory, when macro uncertainty rises, trends often enter a pha
BTC2,63%
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Oil prices surge above $100 per barrel, and the S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq 100 futures begin to decline~
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The market periodically delivers a "crisis experience card" every few years~
Many people, upon hearing the word "crisis," their first reaction is panic, avoidance, and liquidation. But seasoned traders know that crises are always two-sided. For those unprepared, it’s a disaster; for those with a system, it’s often a golden opportunity to redistribute chips~
Major trend reversals often occur amidst extreme emotions; from wave structures, real big opportunities usually emerge during the market’s least willing-to-watch phases. Prices are crashing, people are panicking, but funds are quietly shift
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The data isn't looking good~
The unemployment rate has increased~
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Are there risks in the US stock market?
From a technical perspective, the answer is becoming increasingly clear...
Looking globally, major stock indices are all at historically high levels, clearly in a high-range zone, and risks are gradually accumulating.
On the US side, the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and leading stock Nvidia, from a monthly chart perspective, show a noticeably tight structure, with less room for continued upward movement, while the potential for a pullback is increasing.
Many people are concerned: Will there be new highs? When will it decline?
Short-term predictions are difficult to
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Recently, many friends have asked me what I think about the stock market.
Actually, if you raise your perspective a bit and look at the long-term charts of major global stock indices, the answer is not complicated — most indices are already operating in historically high regions, with candlesticks clearly visible.
The higher the position, the more risk tends to quietly accumulate.
Now, let's focus on the US stock market.
Whether it's the NASDAQ Index #IXIC 、标普500,还是AI绝对龙头 #NVDA, if you switch to a monthly chart, the technical structure is not very optimistic.
Many patterns have alrea
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Will the US stock market major indices face a monthly level decision: a major adjustment or continue to maintain a strong upward trend?
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The market has changed so rapidly over the years—technology is evolving, assets are changing, narratives are shifting, from stocks to cryptocurrencies, from institutional entry to algorithmic trading, the gameplay is becoming more and more complex.
But you'll find that one thing has never changed: human nature.
In a bull market, people always believe "this time is different"; during downturns, they always feel the world is coming to an end. The Dow Theory discusses trends, which essentially reflect the cycle of collective sentiment; wave theory may seem complex, but at its core, it’s just
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