Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision and Dot Plot Summary Released at 2:00 AM Beijing Time:

The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75% unchanged (median approximately 3.625%), with voting results of 11-1 (one member supported an immediate rate cut), in line with 100% market expectations.

⭐️Dot Plot:
End of 2026: 3.4% (approximately 0.225 percentage points lower than current median, corresponding to one 25bp rate cut)
End of 2027: 3.1%
End of 2028: 3.1%
Long-term neutral rate: 3.1% (increased 0.1 percentage points from December 2025)
(2026: 1 rate cut, likely in late second half, possibly after June or September, not aggressive | 2027: 1 cut | 2028: no rate cut)

🔥Summary: This dot plot did not change the median path, signaling "cautious optimism + data dependence." There will likely be only one modest rate cut in 2026, with gradual movement toward the 3.1% neutral level over the next 2-3 years. The rapid easing cycle seen in 2024-2025 will not be repeated. The actual number of cuts remains highly dependent on subsequent inflation reports (PCE/CPI) and employment data.

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