Crypto_Xincheng

Happy New Year everyone. It's been a few days since I last provided a comprehensive market analysis, so today I'll give a brief overview:
Yesterday, there was news of progress in the US-Iran negotiations, but right after the market opened, Trump again expressed a tough stance on Iran and ordered the production of 22 more B2 fighters. These developments have intensified the geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran, leading to a decline in the US stock market, which in turn has driven cryptocurrencies to continue falling. Market sentiment and capital flow are in disarray, but fortunately, f

Duan Yongping increased his NVIDIA holdings by 11 times in Q4, reflecting changes in his portfolio during last year's fourth quarter. He also established new positions in CoreWeave, Credo, and Tempus AI. At the same time, he reduced holdings in stocks such as Alibaba, Apple, and Western Petroleum.
Compared to A-shares:
- CoreWeave (computing power leasing): Inspur Information
- Credo (data transmission/chips): Recurrent Energy
- Tempus AI (medical data): KingMed Diagnostics

Historical Spring Festival Market Trends: Bitcoin Usually Rises During Spring Festival📈
I think Bitcoin is also likely to rise this year because the four-hour chart is already forming a bottom, but it probably won't go too high from this level.

2.14
Last night, the CPI data was below expectations, which was a positive signal. Combined with the non-farm payroll data from a few days ago, it ensured the resilience of the U.S. economy and increased expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. The market rebounded as expected. With this sentiment entering the holiday, the upcoming mood should be better. Additionally, the Supreme Court announced today that the opinion on Trump's tariffs will be on February 20th; we will see the specific outcome.
BTC
As the year-end approaches, historical data shows that aside from the Spring

Tonight's Non-Farm Payrolls Expectations and Their Impact on Cryptocurrency
Tonight (February 11) at 21:30, the US January Non-Farm Payrolls report will be released, and the market is in a "wait-and-see" mode. The key is not whether the data is strong or weak, but whether an "unexpected" event occurs that can change the rate cut expectations.
① Conventional Data: Expected 70,000 new jobs (previously 50,000), Unemployment Rate 4.4%. Goldman Sachs is more pessimistic (45,000), Citibank expects 135,000, and the divergence could trigger intense volatility.
② Impact Logic: Using the "Dollar" as a t

Here is the AI's response:
I am now considering a 5-year investment horizon. Which of the following products would yield the highest returns?
① U.S. stocks
② Gold
③ BTC
④ Silver
⑤ Futures
⑥ A-shares
As expected, BTC remains the most worthwhile investment target.

2.10
BTC
The current market is mainly focused on repairing sentiment, and the overall daily outlook remains unchanged. At this position, the price will still fluctuate around 67,800 to 71,600. The daily chart indicates that the rebound has not yet ended; its purpose is to repair indicators. Meanwhile, attention should be paid to whether the four-hour level can break above 71,600, and only if the MACD crosses above the zero line can the trend continue. Otherwise, it will continue to move within the range, and after completing this move, another downward move may follow. Support is at 67,900-63,

2.9
Key Events This Week:
February 10th: The White House will hold a stablecoin yield discussion meeting again next Tuesday;
February 11th: The US will release January non-farm payroll data at 21:30; market expects 70,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.4%
February 13th: At 21:30, January CPI data will be released; core CPI growth is expected to drop to the lowest since early 2021
BTC
The market pressure remains high, liquidity has not recovered. The recent decline was significant but did not show obvious bearish signals. This situation is the most concerning because, without a clear re

Key Events This Week:
February 10
The White House will hold another stablecoin yield discussion meeting next Tuesday;
February 11
The United States will release January non-farm payroll data at 21:30 on February 11; market expectations are for 70,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.4%
February 13
The United States will release January CPI data at 21:30 on February 13; core CPI growth is expected to drop to the lowest since early 2021
#当前行情抄底还是观望？

BTC Bold prediction for the bottoming time and the peak time: (see chart below)
Bottom:
October-November 2026
Expected at $45,000-$50000
Next top:
September-November 2029
Expected at $200,000-$230000
The rest is up to time.

The current volatility and downward trend may continue until the first half of 2026. The key to a rebound lies in improving macro liquidity and easing internal market pressures.
Key Factors for Market Continuation:
① Macro Pressure: Federal Reserve policies, geopolitical tensions, and potential AI bubble risks may keep risk assets like Bitcoin under pressure.
② Internal Market Pressure: Ongoing selling by long-term holders and intermittent inflows of institutional funds have led to a "slow bleeding" spot selling pressure.
Potential Rebound Signals and Timing:
Most analyses suggest that the mar

Is BTC reaching 60,000 a temporary bottom or a consolidation decline?
Bitcoin has already experienced a volume-driven decline on the daily chart at this level, returning to 60,000. Currently, the strong support below is in the 55,000 to 60,000 range. The recent decline in this wave has seen increased volume, which indicates active trading activity below. Do you think more people are buying or selling at this level? Ethereum's daily chart also shows volume accumulation, and we should pay attention to the turnover at this level.
Summary: Not all bullish signals are necessarily positive, and not

The Fear & Greed Index has hit a three-year low. Do you dare to buy the dip?
Currently, the Fear & Greed Index has dropped to 9, with the all-time low at 5. Historically, every time it falls below 10, it marks a stage bottom. The current market sentiment is extremely fearful, which could also be a buying opportunity. So at this point, do you dare to buy?#当前行情抄底还是观望？

2.4
BTC
The House has passed the funding bill, which is now on Trump’s desk for signing. The government shutdown has ended. The market, as we expected, did not last long around the shutdown period. Now, the focus is on when the price will stop falling. Currently, Bitcoin is approaching the 71,300 level, which is also the upper boundary of a previous consolidation zone. We have observed that in the past few days, the price has been oscillating around 76,000. Since MicroStrategy’s cost basis is near 76,000, there are no clear signs of a reversal at this level yet. However, given the previous acc

2.3
Yesterday, CME futures opened with a significant decline, but started to recover during the European session. The expectation that the government shutdown would end by Monday seems to be delayed by a few more days. This shutdown has once again delayed the release of labor data, but the January data is no longer very important. Everyone is more focused on the trend after the transition. Therefore, in the short term, there are no major fundamental bearish signals.
BTC
The idea shared yesterday was that as long as 76,400 is not broken, there would be a small rebound. Yesterday, after a false