# 预测市场发展

#预测市场发展 Polymarket's move is brilliant! Spinning off from Polygon to become an independent L2 is not only a technical upgrade but also a sign of the maturity of the prediction market ecosystem.
Think about it, prediction markets are like the "truth machine" of information markets — allowing everyone to express their judgments about the future with real money through decentralization. The reason Polymarket is doing this shows that the demand for prediction markets has grown so large that it can no longer be confined by any single infrastructure. Previously relying on Polygon, a single outage c

#预测市场发展 Seeing how Rhythm is approaching the prediction market coverage this time, the first thought that flashed through my mind was—this is much more serious than we imagined.
Back in 2017, I saw too many people die over various "insider information." At that time, it was mainly about project teams in the crypto space running away or exchanges manipulating things behind the scenes. But prediction markets are different; they use the most transparent method—fund flow. No need for anyone to say anything, no need for leaks; when prices deviate, they are essentially shouting.
The most memorable

#预测市场发展 I really agree with what Vitalik said. To be honest, over the past two years of trading on exchanges, the most annoying thing has been those absolute claims on social media—"inevitable collapse" or "certain surge"—they all create panic or false hope, and no one is responsible afterward.
The logic of prediction markets is actually the same as following traders: real money talks. On Polymarket, the chance of a UK civil war is only 3%. This isn’t derived from retweets and comments; it’s the result of a group of people who actually put their money where their mouth is, using economic ince

The public sale is here, and this time it's really a bit different!🚀
Created by the original team behind UFO, the first 10x leverage prediction market on Solana. Just hearing that makes you want to jump in. The most exciting part—50% of platform revenue is directly used to buy back and burn tokens. This is the true flywheel mechanism, not just talk from those projects.
Key data overview:
- Launches on December 17, with FDV rising linearly from 50 million to 99 million
- Fundraising goal of 2.5 million USD, 100% unlocked at TGE, no vesting
- No minimum subscription amount, truly giving the com

#预测市场发展 After the news about Trump's $1.3 billion sales volume came out, I saw Polymarket directly call out the misinformation — the prediction platform deemed this data "untrustworthy," with an 89% probability indicating sales this year are zero. This gives us a very practical tip: when developing prediction markets, learn to distinguish between "claims" and "actual transactions."
They claim $1.3 billion in sales is booming, but Polymarket requires "final approval + completed payment" as the real data, and these two standards are far apart. Many projects have used this approach in fundraisin

#预测市场发展 Prediction Markets?? I heard that Space is launching its public sale today, so I couldn’t help but do some research and ended up falling into a whole new rabbit hole 🕳️
I only knew the term "prediction market" before, but I had no idea what it could be used for. Turns out, you can trade and make judgments on real-world events like crypto assets, politics, and sports. If your prediction is correct, you can profit? It feels a bit like an upgraded version of "betting," but not exactly the same?
What attracts me the most is that Space supports 10x leverage trading, with theoretical retur

#预测市场发展 Seeing the news that Trump's card sales reached 1.3 billion USD, my first reaction was to think of the number games I've seen in the crypto world over the years. A sales figure of 1.3 billion sounds impressive, but the doubts raised by Polymarket hit the key point — "final approval and payment completed" is what counts, not just a simple sales promise.
This pattern is all too familiar. The numbers reported by project teams often include pre-orders, deposits, and amounts not actually received, making the figures look large, but the actual completion rate might only be around 30%. The p

#预测市场发展 The statement that Trump's Gold Card sales reached $1.3 billion indeed warrants in-depth follow-up. Based on on-chain data and market reaction, the 89% zero-sales probability provided by Polymarket reflects the market's assessment of the authenticity of this data — this is not a simple doubt, but based on clear verification standards: final approval and completed payment.
Expressions like "sales are booming" and "sold out in just a few days" in Trump's statement are essentially liquidity commitments rather than settlement facts. From an investment research perspective, the core indica

#预测市场发展 The cycle of Space's token public sale has started again with the same old tricks: lofty fundraising backgrounds, shiny team resumes, intricate mechanism designs... But I must say, none of these are the factors that determine the project's life or death.
Everyone has heard the story of UFO — thriving in 2021 with a peak market cap of 1.5 billion, and now? Back then, the "distribution capability" and "community consensus" were impressive, but time ultimately provided the answer. Space inherits UFO's team and adopts the same narrative framework, which itself warrants caution.
Careful ex

#预测市场发展 Seeing the public sale launch of Space, my first reaction was the prediction market boom of 2021. Back then, similar projects emerged one after another, raising increasingly large amounts of funding, but very few actually survived and achieved meaningful trading depth.
This time, Space’s design approach actually gave me a bit of a bright spot. 50% of platform revenue is used for buyback and burn, and this flywheel mechanism essentially ties their long-term interests to token holders — it’s not a new concept, but few projects execute it well. The key is that they are backed by the UFO